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<p>The differences in social contacts of age groups led to the variations of infection scales and requirements on hospital beds, and even the changes of the scales of severe infection and death during COVID-19 era. To figure out the transmission mechanism of age group, we proposed a multi-age group epidemic model with social contacts in this paper. Then, the basic reproduction numbers for the total population and the specific age group were respectively derived, in which the intra-average contact number for the specific age group determined the basic reproduction number therein. Meanwhile, the global stability for disease-free equilibrium point as well as the uniform persistence around endemic equilibrium point were extensively discussed. Furthermore, based on surveillance data from Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the simulation results showed that the high susceptibility to infection implied the high-risk of the specific age group. Especially, for the high-risk age group, the impacts of social contacts under three scenarios were significant. As a consequence, the local government was suggested to decline social contacts by closing the massive activities to avoid the shortage of hospital beds and the emergence of medical runs.</p>

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Multi-age group epidemic model with social contacts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Xiaomin Lan,
  • Guangmin Chen,
  • Shijing Chen,
  • Kuicheng Zheng,
  • Shaojian Cai,
  • Fengying Wei,
  • Zhen Jin,
  • Xuerong Mao

摘要

The differences in social contacts of age groups led to the variations of infection scales and requirements on hospital beds, and even the changes of the scales of severe infection and death during COVID-19 era. To figure out the transmission mechanism of age group, we proposed a multi-age group epidemic model with social contacts in this paper. Then, the basic reproduction numbers for the total population and the specific age group were respectively derived, in which the intra-average contact number for the specific age group determined the basic reproduction number therein. Meanwhile, the global stability for disease-free equilibrium point as well as the uniform persistence around endemic equilibrium point were extensively discussed. Furthermore, based on surveillance data from Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the simulation results showed that the high susceptibility to infection implied the high-risk of the specific age group. Especially, for the high-risk age group, the impacts of social contacts under three scenarios were significant. As a consequence, the local government was suggested to decline social contacts by closing the massive activities to avoid the shortage of hospital beds and the emergence of medical runs.