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Background <p>Cancer remains a major global health burden, with G20 countries disproportionately affected owing to demographic and economic diversity. Assessing site-specific cancer trends provides key insights to reduce disparities and inform prevention strategies.</p> Methods <p>Incidence and mortality data for breast, cervical, and oral cancers were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (mortality 1996–2020, incidence 1998–2017). Countries were grouped by socio-demographic index. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were analysed using estimated annual percentage change and age–period–cohort modelling to assess temporal and generational trends.</p> Results <p>Breast cancer incidence declined or plateaued in most high-SDI countries but increased in South Korea (5.1%) and China (2.0%). Cervical cancer declined in several high- and lower-middle SDI countries but increased in China (6.1%). Oral cancer patterns were heterogeneous: male incidence decreased in France and Germany but increased in India and China. Mortality paralleled incidence. APC analyses indicated pronounced cohort effects, with progressive declines in high-SDI settings, whereas in India, China, and Turkey, risks remained persistent or rose.</p> Conclusion <p>Substantial disparities in breast, cervical, and oral cancers persist across G20 countries. Strengthening cancer control through including early detection, HPV vaccination, and tobacco–alcohol reduction is essential. Given their influence, G20 countries can play a pivotal role in reducing inequities and advancing global cancer prevention.</p>

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Trend and age-period-cohort analysis of breast, cervical, and oral cancer incidence and mortality in G20 countries (1996–2020)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

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  • Anita Nath,
  • Gowthaman Thangavel,
  • Krishnan Sathishkumar,
  • Gokul Sarveswaran,
  • Praveen Pujar

摘要

Background

Cancer remains a major global health burden, with G20 countries disproportionately affected owing to demographic and economic diversity. Assessing site-specific cancer trends provides key insights to reduce disparities and inform prevention strategies.

Methods

Incidence and mortality data for breast, cervical, and oral cancers were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory (mortality 1996–2020, incidence 1998–2017). Countries were grouped by socio-demographic index. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were analysed using estimated annual percentage change and age–period–cohort modelling to assess temporal and generational trends.

Results

Breast cancer incidence declined or plateaued in most high-SDI countries but increased in South Korea (5.1%) and China (2.0%). Cervical cancer declined in several high- and lower-middle SDI countries but increased in China (6.1%). Oral cancer patterns were heterogeneous: male incidence decreased in France and Germany but increased in India and China. Mortality paralleled incidence. APC analyses indicated pronounced cohort effects, with progressive declines in high-SDI settings, whereas in India, China, and Turkey, risks remained persistent or rose.

Conclusion

Substantial disparities in breast, cervical, and oral cancers persist across G20 countries. Strengthening cancer control through including early detection, HPV vaccination, and tobacco–alcohol reduction is essential. Given their influence, G20 countries can play a pivotal role in reducing inequities and advancing global cancer prevention.