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<p>Recent deflationary episodes in China, particularly observed in July 2023, have prompted concerns about their potential impact on global economies. This study specifically examines the influence of China’s deflation on selected ASEAN economies. Unlike prior research that primarily focuses on inflationary spillovers, this study examines the critical yet less explored area of deflation spillovers and their effects on key macroeconomic aggregates. The findings reveal that the deflationary shocks are relatively muted, with limited long-term impacts on the ASEAN-5 economies. Notably, while some countries such as Malaysia show immediate responses, overall effects remain minimal. These insights inform policymakers about the resilience of ASEAN-5 economies and guide the development of strategies to maintain regional economic stability amid potential deflationary challenges.</p>

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Are there Long-term consequences to China’s Deflationary Bout? The case of ASEAN

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月30日

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  • Justin Eloriaga,
  • Carlos Pamittan,
  • Vince San Juan,
  • Annika Subido

摘要

Recent deflationary episodes in China, particularly observed in July 2023, have prompted concerns about their potential impact on global economies. This study specifically examines the influence of China’s deflation on selected ASEAN economies. Unlike prior research that primarily focuses on inflationary spillovers, this study examines the critical yet less explored area of deflation spillovers and their effects on key macroeconomic aggregates. The findings reveal that the deflationary shocks are relatively muted, with limited long-term impacts on the ASEAN-5 economies. Notably, while some countries such as Malaysia show immediate responses, overall effects remain minimal. These insights inform policymakers about the resilience of ASEAN-5 economies and guide the development of strategies to maintain regional economic stability amid potential deflationary challenges.