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<p>This study examines club convergence and the deqterminants of club membership for a set of 113 global economies over the period 2012–2022. Using the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology, the study identifies convergence patterns in food security across countries, forming distinct clubs based on food security levels. In addition, applying an Ordered Logit approach, the study investigates the role of initial conditions in countries’ club formation. The findings reveal seven clubs for overall food security, six for affordability, and five each for availability, quality and safety, and sustainability and adaptation. Regarding the drivers of club formation, differences in initial conditions across countries are shown to significantly shape club membership. Specifically, GDP growth, agricultural value added, livestock production, agricultural water use, and urbanization lower the likelihood of joining the top tier food-security clubs (1 and&#xa0;2) while increasing the probability of a country to become the part of mid-tier clubs (4, 5 and&#xa0;6); Club 3 remains unaffected, and the effects on Club 7 are relatively weaker. This pattern aligns with the multiple-equilibria framework of club convergence, wherein heterogeneous initial conditions direct countries toward distinct basins of attraction. Therefore, strengthening the food security infrastructure of low- and middle-income countries is essential to enhance absorptive capacity and accelerate the pace of convergence.</p>

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Global food security dynamics: examining club convergence and the role of initial conditions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Faisal Azeem Abbassi,
  • Syed Kafait Hussain Naqvi,
  • Muhammad Jamil

摘要

This study examines club convergence and the deqterminants of club membership for a set of 113 global economies over the period 2012–2022. Using the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology, the study identifies convergence patterns in food security across countries, forming distinct clubs based on food security levels. In addition, applying an Ordered Logit approach, the study investigates the role of initial conditions in countries’ club formation. The findings reveal seven clubs for overall food security, six for affordability, and five each for availability, quality and safety, and sustainability and adaptation. Regarding the drivers of club formation, differences in initial conditions across countries are shown to significantly shape club membership. Specifically, GDP growth, agricultural value added, livestock production, agricultural water use, and urbanization lower the likelihood of joining the top tier food-security clubs (1 and 2) while increasing the probability of a country to become the part of mid-tier clubs (4, 5 and 6); Club 3 remains unaffected, and the effects on Club 7 are relatively weaker. This pattern aligns with the multiple-equilibria framework of club convergence, wherein heterogeneous initial conditions direct countries toward distinct basins of attraction. Therefore, strengthening the food security infrastructure of low- and middle-income countries is essential to enhance absorptive capacity and accelerate the pace of convergence.