Evaluating the impact of the almaty programme of action on export performance in lldcs: a difference-in-differences approach
摘要
Landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) face persistent trade disadvantages arising from geographic isolation, dependence on transit countries, and systematically higher trade costs. The Almaty Programme of Action (APoA) was introduced as the first global policy framework aimed at alleviating these constraints through improvements in transit systems, infrastructure, and trade facilitation. This paper examines the association between APoA participation and merchandise export performance using a two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences framework. The results indicate that APoA participation is associated with higher aggregate exports in LLDCs relative to non-landlocked developing countries, with the relationship remaining robust across alternative specifications and placebo and parallel-trends tests. Mechanism analysis suggests that reductions in aggregate trade costs constitute an economically meaningful channel through which the APoA is linked to export performance, although the estimated treatment effect is not fully explained by this channel alone. Moderation analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity, with larger export associations observed in relatively higher-income LLDCs and in countries with stronger institutional quality. Overall, the findings suggest that international support frameworks are most effective when combined with domestic capacity to reduce trade costs and implement trade-facilitation reforms.