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<p>As a transcontinental global cooperation program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims for policy coordination, unimpeded connectivity, trade facilitation, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. Following the International Cooperation theory of political economy, this study assesses the impact of BRI membership on global value chain (GVC) participation for African member countries. The study employed panel Random Effects (RE), Hausman &amp; Taylor (HT), and Instrumental Variables (IV) methods to empirically estimate the quantitative effects of BRI membership on forward, backward, and total GVC participation for 43 African countries from 2000 to 2022. The findings demonstrate that BRI membership boosted overall and forward GVC participation, despite the absence of empirical evidence for backward GVC promotion. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis revealed considerable differences in BRI-GVC effects across countries, with geographic and trade-association factors. Nevertheless, the results were consistently robust across the RE, HT, and IV estimation models employed. Hence, the findings imply that African policymakers should increase GVC value additions, reform trade associations, enhance BRI trade facilitation, strengthen political stability, and address the impacts of COVID-19.</p>

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The belt and road initiative and global value chain participation: Empirical evidence from African economies

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Abas Omar Mohamed

摘要

As a transcontinental global cooperation program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims for policy coordination, unimpeded connectivity, trade facilitation, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. Following the International Cooperation theory of political economy, this study assesses the impact of BRI membership on global value chain (GVC) participation for African member countries. The study employed panel Random Effects (RE), Hausman & Taylor (HT), and Instrumental Variables (IV) methods to empirically estimate the quantitative effects of BRI membership on forward, backward, and total GVC participation for 43 African countries from 2000 to 2022. The findings demonstrate that BRI membership boosted overall and forward GVC participation, despite the absence of empirical evidence for backward GVC promotion. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis revealed considerable differences in BRI-GVC effects across countries, with geographic and trade-association factors. Nevertheless, the results were consistently robust across the RE, HT, and IV estimation models employed. Hence, the findings imply that African policymakers should increase GVC value additions, reform trade associations, enhance BRI trade facilitation, strengthen political stability, and address the impacts of COVID-19.