The effects of macroeconomic and budget balance shocks on public debt trajectories in the euro area
摘要
This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic and budget balance shocks on public debt trajectories in the euro area. Country-specific SVAR models are used to identify various shocks, which are subsequently incorporated into local projection models that use panel data to estimate the impulse responses. The analysis indicates that a positive GDP shock leads to a persistent decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, while a positive GDP deflator shock reduces the debt ratio only temporarily. A positive interest rate shock results in a substantial and lasting increase in the debt ratio. A positive primary balance shock lowers the debt ratio considerably, albeit with a lag of around one year. There is evidence of state-dependent and non-linear effects. A positive primary balance shock is more effective in reducing debt after periods of economic expansion than after recessions, and more effective when the initial public debt is low than when it is high. Moreover, a positive GDP shock reduces the debt stock to a larger extent when the debt stock is large than when it is low.