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<p>The exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT network in February 2022 was a major financial sanction that disrupted global payment communication. In response, Russia accelerated the expansion of its domestic alternative—the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS)—to preserve financial connectivity and economic stability. Most studies focus on SWIFT’s geopolitical role and the logic of sanctions, but we still have limited evidence on how SWIFT exclusion affects the economy in the short run through financial infrastructure channels. We fill this gap by combining a geopolitical discussion with an event-study focused on the SWIFT cutoff as an infrastructure shock. Using monthly data from March 2020 to February 2024, a binned event-study framework is employed to estimate the short-run impact of SWIFT exclusion on two key external indicators: merchandise exports and international reserves. The results show a clear difference between trade and financial outcomes. Export revenues remained temporarily elevated following the cut-off, largely reflecting the contemporaneous surge in global oil prices rather than structural trade resilience. In contrast, international reserves experienced a steep and persistent contraction, consistent with asset freezes, capital outflows, and defensive central-bank interventions. Alternative systems may keep some transactions moving, but they do not replace SWIFT’s global reach, liquidity access, and the trust built into its network. The study highlights how financial messaging systems have become strategic instruments of economic statecraft and how the fragmentation of global payment infrastructures is reshaping financial sovereignty and the international economic order.</p>

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Financial resilience in a fragmented system: assessing Russia’s SPFS and the sustainability of global payment networks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Mesbah Fathy Sharaf,
  • Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen,
  • El-Hussien Ibrahim Mansour,
  • Noha Nagi Elboghdadly

摘要

The exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT network in February 2022 was a major financial sanction that disrupted global payment communication. In response, Russia accelerated the expansion of its domestic alternative—the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS)—to preserve financial connectivity and economic stability. Most studies focus on SWIFT’s geopolitical role and the logic of sanctions, but we still have limited evidence on how SWIFT exclusion affects the economy in the short run through financial infrastructure channels. We fill this gap by combining a geopolitical discussion with an event-study focused on the SWIFT cutoff as an infrastructure shock. Using monthly data from March 2020 to February 2024, a binned event-study framework is employed to estimate the short-run impact of SWIFT exclusion on two key external indicators: merchandise exports and international reserves. The results show a clear difference between trade and financial outcomes. Export revenues remained temporarily elevated following the cut-off, largely reflecting the contemporaneous surge in global oil prices rather than structural trade resilience. In contrast, international reserves experienced a steep and persistent contraction, consistent with asset freezes, capital outflows, and defensive central-bank interventions. Alternative systems may keep some transactions moving, but they do not replace SWIFT’s global reach, liquidity access, and the trust built into its network. The study highlights how financial messaging systems have become strategic instruments of economic statecraft and how the fragmentation of global payment infrastructures is reshaping financial sovereignty and the international economic order.