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<p>This study empirically investigates the trade effects of US export regulations. In particular, we focus on regulations on the export of integrated circuits (ICs) and IC manufacturing equipment (IME). We employ monthly worldwide trade data from January 2018 to September 2023. Our findings from gravity estimations can be summarized as follows: First, changes in US export regulations significantly decreased US exports to China. In particular, the exports of the main IC products (i.e., processors) decreased by reducing export quantities after the US tightened its export regulations in October 2022. This tightening also significantly decreased US exports of IME to China. Second, tightening the foreign direct product rule did not change the exports of the main IC product from Taiwan (i.e., other ICs) to China but significantly decreased exports from Korea (i.e., memories). Third, these regulations significantly decreased the IME exports from the Netherlands to China, whereas Japanese IME exports to China did not change significantly. In short, the effects in third economies are not uniform.</p>

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The trade effects of the US export control regulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月14日

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  • Kazunobu Hayakawa

摘要

This study empirically investigates the trade effects of US export regulations. In particular, we focus on regulations on the export of integrated circuits (ICs) and IC manufacturing equipment (IME). We employ monthly worldwide trade data from January 2018 to September 2023. Our findings from gravity estimations can be summarized as follows: First, changes in US export regulations significantly decreased US exports to China. In particular, the exports of the main IC products (i.e., processors) decreased by reducing export quantities after the US tightened its export regulations in October 2022. This tightening also significantly decreased US exports of IME to China. Second, tightening the foreign direct product rule did not change the exports of the main IC product from Taiwan (i.e., other ICs) to China but significantly decreased exports from Korea (i.e., memories). Third, these regulations significantly decreased the IME exports from the Netherlands to China, whereas Japanese IME exports to China did not change significantly. In short, the effects in third economies are not uniform.