Evolutionary controls on post-seismic new landslides revealed by multi-earthquake inventories
摘要
Although the temporal decay of earthquake influence on post-seismic landslides is widely recognized, the duration of seismic legacy effects remains debated. This uncertainty partly arises from differences in the types of post-seismic landslides considered across studies, resulting in poorly constrained spatiotemporal controls of post-seismic new landslides. Here we focus on landslides newly triggered in areas that remained stable during the mainshocks of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China, 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, and 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu, Indonesia earthquakes. We propose a nested random forest framework designed to address modeling uncertainty, and apply it to analyze nine landslide inventories forming a coherent post-seismic temporal sequence. Results indicate that the influence of peak ground acceleration (PGA) on new landslides declines rapidly during the early post-seismic period and becomes a minor contributor after approximately 3 years. Over the same post-seismic period, individual topographic proxies exhibit temporal variability, whereas their aggregated contribution remains remarkably stable and consistently exceeds 50%. In contrast, lithology type and distance to faults consistently show low relative importance. These results delineate distinct temporal behaviors between time-dependent variables, such as seismic forcing and extreme rainfall, and more stable terrain-related controls on post-seismic new landslides. These findings provide a more constrained basis for developing spatiotemporal susceptibility models of post-seismic new landslides.