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<p>Anti-dip, bedded rock slopes in reservoir settings commonly undergo progressive deformation driven by coupled reservoir water-level fluctuation, rainfall infiltration, and groundwater dynamics. This study examines the Huangcaoping toppling mass on the left bank of the Dagangshan Reservoir (Dadu River, China) by integrating GNSS and SBAS-InSAR time-series monitoring, field geological mapping, and a 2D hydro-mechanically coupled distinct-element model (UDEC). Innovations include a unified coupling scheme linking reservoir-stage variation, groundwater response, and rainfall infiltration, and an improved seepage algorithm that captures dynamic saturation during impoundment and a lagged groundwater-level response; seepage-induced weakening of weak planes is also considered. Stability is assessed using the strength-reduction method, and an orthogonal sensitivity design is applied to identify dominant seepage parameters. Model skill is evaluated through quantitative comparison between observed SBAS-InSAR line-of-sight (LOS) displacements and simulated outputs, testing the reproduction of deformation magnitude and temporal evolution. Results indicate pronounced deformation zonation controlled primarily by toe seepage weakening. Since the second impoundment in 2015, the severe-deformation zone accumulated ~ 24.8 m displacement with rainfall-related peak rates of ~ 590 mm/day, forming a rear tensile cracking–frontal thrusting architecture. The factor of safety decreases from 1.03 to 0.99, indicating near-critical stability. Sensitivity analysis identifies the zero-normal-stress hydraulic aperture as the key control on both saturated-zone development and displacement, highlighting the slope toe as the priority sector for drainage and reinforcement.</p>

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Deformation evolution and stability analysis of the huangcaoping toppling slope in a hydropower reservoir

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Jun-heng Chen,
  • Guo-qing Tang,
  • Hai-bo Li,
  • Zhi-yu Li,
  • Nan Jiang,
  • Jia-wen Zhou

摘要

Anti-dip, bedded rock slopes in reservoir settings commonly undergo progressive deformation driven by coupled reservoir water-level fluctuation, rainfall infiltration, and groundwater dynamics. This study examines the Huangcaoping toppling mass on the left bank of the Dagangshan Reservoir (Dadu River, China) by integrating GNSS and SBAS-InSAR time-series monitoring, field geological mapping, and a 2D hydro-mechanically coupled distinct-element model (UDEC). Innovations include a unified coupling scheme linking reservoir-stage variation, groundwater response, and rainfall infiltration, and an improved seepage algorithm that captures dynamic saturation during impoundment and a lagged groundwater-level response; seepage-induced weakening of weak planes is also considered. Stability is assessed using the strength-reduction method, and an orthogonal sensitivity design is applied to identify dominant seepage parameters. Model skill is evaluated through quantitative comparison between observed SBAS-InSAR line-of-sight (LOS) displacements and simulated outputs, testing the reproduction of deformation magnitude and temporal evolution. Results indicate pronounced deformation zonation controlled primarily by toe seepage weakening. Since the second impoundment in 2015, the severe-deformation zone accumulated ~ 24.8 m displacement with rainfall-related peak rates of ~ 590 mm/day, forming a rear tensile cracking–frontal thrusting architecture. The factor of safety decreases from 1.03 to 0.99, indicating near-critical stability. Sensitivity analysis identifies the zero-normal-stress hydraulic aperture as the key control on both saturated-zone development and displacement, highlighting the slope toe as the priority sector for drainage and reinforcement.