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<p>On February 8, 2025, a catastrophic landslide occurred in Jinpingcun (JPC) village, Junlian County, Sichuan Province, China. The event involved an estimated volume of ~ 6 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, traveled a horizontal distance of 1180&#xa0;m, and resulted in 2 injuries, 10 fatalities, and 19 missing persons. Field investigations, data collection, and numerical simulations were conducted to analyze the landslide characteristics and failure mechanism. Structural analysis revealed that the slope, composed of sandstone, siltstone, mudstone, shale, and coal seams, contained multiple joint sets, with the failure mode identified as flexural toppling. Landslide initiation was strongly influenced by sustained rainfall, which induced progressive slope deformation and elevated fracture water pressures, particularly within low-permeability mudstone and shale layers. These hydromechanical processes played a key role in connecting potential slip surfaces and reducing shear strength. In addition, long-term cumulative damage caused by repeated seismic activity, freeze–thaw cycles, and historical rainfall further weakened the slope, lowering its resistance to failure. Ultimately, the combined effects of gravity and residual water pressure drove the slope to a critical state, resulting in large-scale collapse. This study demonstrates that the JPC landslide represents a typical case of rainfall-induced progressive failure in anti-dip slopes, which is controlled by the interaction between structural geology and hydromechanical processes. These findings provide important insights into landslide hazard assessment in seismically active and rainfall-prone regions of southwestern China.</p>

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Progressive failure of an anti-dip slope: characteristics and mechanisms of the 2025 Jinpingcun landslide, Sichuan, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月23日

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  • Ling Zhu,
  • Zicheng Lu,
  • Can Wang,
  • Yi Huang,
  • Huilin Liu,
  • Yufei Liang,
  • Zhihao He

摘要

On February 8, 2025, a catastrophic landslide occurred in Jinpingcun (JPC) village, Junlian County, Sichuan Province, China. The event involved an estimated volume of ~ 6 × 106 m3, traveled a horizontal distance of 1180 m, and resulted in 2 injuries, 10 fatalities, and 19 missing persons. Field investigations, data collection, and numerical simulations were conducted to analyze the landslide characteristics and failure mechanism. Structural analysis revealed that the slope, composed of sandstone, siltstone, mudstone, shale, and coal seams, contained multiple joint sets, with the failure mode identified as flexural toppling. Landslide initiation was strongly influenced by sustained rainfall, which induced progressive slope deformation and elevated fracture water pressures, particularly within low-permeability mudstone and shale layers. These hydromechanical processes played a key role in connecting potential slip surfaces and reducing shear strength. In addition, long-term cumulative damage caused by repeated seismic activity, freeze–thaw cycles, and historical rainfall further weakened the slope, lowering its resistance to failure. Ultimately, the combined effects of gravity and residual water pressure drove the slope to a critical state, resulting in large-scale collapse. This study demonstrates that the JPC landslide represents a typical case of rainfall-induced progressive failure in anti-dip slopes, which is controlled by the interaction between structural geology and hydromechanical processes. These findings provide important insights into landslide hazard assessment in seismically active and rainfall-prone regions of southwestern China.