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<p>On February 7, 2021, a catastrophic ice-rock avalanche in Chamoli, Himalaya, triggered a devastating flood, yet the precursory signals and climatic drivers of the failure remained poorly constrained. To address this, we developed a new method to reconcile inconsistencies between Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, producing the first temporal-consistent, multi-year record of pre-failure deformation. Our analysis reveals over 80 m of cumulative movement between 2013 and 2021, defined by a distinct pattern of slow winter displacement and rapid summer acceleration. Crucially, the most significant accelerations coincided with the exceptionally warm and wet summers of 2017 and 2018, providing direct observational evidence linking slope destabilization to anomalous climatic conditions. We propose a physical mechanism whereby high air temperatures, amplified by rainwater infiltration, progressively reduced the shear strength of ice on the sliding plane. These findings establish a clear pathway from rising temperatures to catastrophic slope failure, demonstrating a powerful approach for monitoring hazards in the high-mountain cryosphere and underscoring the escalating risk of complex, climate-driven hazards worldwide.</p>

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Anomalous summer warming drove the destabilization of the 2021 Chamoli ice-rock avalanche

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月13日

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  • Wentao Yang,
  • Jing Tian,
  • Yunqi Wang,
  • Jian Fang,
  • Wenwen Qi,
  • Chong Xu

摘要

On February 7, 2021, a catastrophic ice-rock avalanche in Chamoli, Himalaya, triggered a devastating flood, yet the precursory signals and climatic drivers of the failure remained poorly constrained. To address this, we developed a new method to reconcile inconsistencies between Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, producing the first temporal-consistent, multi-year record of pre-failure deformation. Our analysis reveals over 80 m of cumulative movement between 2013 and 2021, defined by a distinct pattern of slow winter displacement and rapid summer acceleration. Crucially, the most significant accelerations coincided with the exceptionally warm and wet summers of 2017 and 2018, providing direct observational evidence linking slope destabilization to anomalous climatic conditions. We propose a physical mechanism whereby high air temperatures, amplified by rainwater infiltration, progressively reduced the shear strength of ice on the sliding plane. These findings establish a clear pathway from rising temperatures to catastrophic slope failure, demonstrating a powerful approach for monitoring hazards in the high-mountain cryosphere and underscoring the escalating risk of complex, climate-driven hazards worldwide.