<p>Climate change is affecting the productivity and sustainability of forest ecosystems. Prediction of population responses to climate change is an important tool for planning future forest management. Provenance tests are a valuable source of information. We estimated a universal response function for Scots pine, an economically and ecologically important species in Eastern European forests. The main climatic factor driving the phenotypic differentiation of populations by mean annual height increment in juvenile populations was the mean daily air temperature in June, while phenotypic plasticity was determined by mean diurnal air temperature range and mean daily air temperature in June. For three climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5) for 2071–2100, mean height annual increment and potential stand phytomass carbon storage were predicted. Northern populations exhibited the greatest resilience to climate change. Thus, populations located in the northern part of boreal forests may benefit from climate change that will occur in the next 50–70&#xa0;years. Projections indicate that populations south of latitude 55°N will become vulnerable to suboptimal climatic conditions by mid- to late-century, and at the southern limits of the Eastern European range they are threatened with extirpation. The projections of carbon storage of local populations indicate that stands in the northern and middle boreal zone will increase their capacity across all scenarios, while in the temperate and steppe zones growth decline and local extirpation could partially convert Scots pine stands into net CO₂ emission sources. Although the approaches used have limitations, they still provide valuable information for adapting forest management to climate change.</p>