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<p>Mosambi is an important citrus crop contributing significantly to the economic and agricultural sustainability of farmers in Himachal Pradesh, accounting for approximately 26.88% of the state’s total citrus production. This study analyzes the long-term trends, seasonal fluctuation, instability, and forecasting patterns of mosambi arrivals and prices in the major markets of Kangra and Una during the 2006–2023 period. Different trend models were applied, revealing that power and cubic models fit best for the arrivals data, while cubic models fit best for the prices data. Seasonal indices identified peak and lean periods for both prices and arrivals across markets. The analysis showed high instability in arrivals, whereas the prices exhibited relatively low instability. Positive growth rates were observed for arrivals and prices in all markets; however, the growth in arrivals was not persistent over time. Correlation analysis indicated a&#xa0;generally positive relationship between arrivals and prices, although this relationship was not persistent across all years. Furthermore, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were employed to forecast the arrivals and prices of mosambi crop, which can be advantageous for both growers and policy makers. The findings provide valuable insights for farmers and policymakers, supporting informed decision-making, efficient market planning, and sustainable agricultural development.</p>

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Trend Analysis and Forecast of Arrivals and Prices of Mosambi Crop in Himachal Pradesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月22日

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  • Vishal Thakur,
  • Anju Sharma,
  • Rakesh Kumar Gupta,
  • Ashu Chandel,
  • Subhash Sharma,
  • Sahil Verma,
  • Vijit Gupta,
  • Ridhi Chauhan

摘要

Mosambi is an important citrus crop contributing significantly to the economic and agricultural sustainability of farmers in Himachal Pradesh, accounting for approximately 26.88% of the state’s total citrus production. This study analyzes the long-term trends, seasonal fluctuation, instability, and forecasting patterns of mosambi arrivals and prices in the major markets of Kangra and Una during the 2006–2023 period. Different trend models were applied, revealing that power and cubic models fit best for the arrivals data, while cubic models fit best for the prices data. Seasonal indices identified peak and lean periods for both prices and arrivals across markets. The analysis showed high instability in arrivals, whereas the prices exhibited relatively low instability. Positive growth rates were observed for arrivals and prices in all markets; however, the growth in arrivals was not persistent over time. Correlation analysis indicated a generally positive relationship between arrivals and prices, although this relationship was not persistent across all years. Furthermore, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were employed to forecast the arrivals and prices of mosambi crop, which can be advantageous for both growers and policy makers. The findings provide valuable insights for farmers and policymakers, supporting informed decision-making, efficient market planning, and sustainable agricultural development.