<p>This study investigates the effects of production and foreign trade dynamics on cherry prices in Türkiye within an asymmetric framework. Given the increasing importance of cherry production and exports for Türkiye’s agricultural sector, understanding whether price responses to positive and negative shocks differ in magnitude and direction is crucial for both market participants and policymakers. Using annual data covering the period 2004–2023 obtained from the FAOSTAT database, the study examines the relationships between cherry prices, production volume, export quantity, import quantity, and yield. To determine the stationarity properties of the variables, the residual augmented least squares augmented Dickey–Fuller (RALS-ADF) unit root test was employed, which allows for non-normal error structures such as skewness and kurtosis. The long-run relationships among the variables were analyzed using the RALS-EG cointegration test, a modified version of the Engle–Granger approach with higher statistical power under non-normal disturbances. Finally, the Hatemi‑J (<CitationRef CitationID="CR11">2012</CitationRef>) asymmetric impulse–response analysis was applied to examine the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks in production and foreign trade variables on cherry prices. The empirical results indicate that all variables are stationary at lag (1) and exhibit a strong long-run cointegration relationship with cherry prices. The cointegration analysis reveals that exports and imports are the most influential long-term determinants of cherry prices, followed by production volume and yield. The asymmetric impulse-response findings demonstrate that negative shocks in export volume exert significantly stronger and more persistent effects on cherry prices than positive shocks, while positive shocks in imports generate reverse and dominant impacts on prices. In contrast, production volume exhibits a largely symmetric effect, and the influence of yield remains relatively weak. Overall, the findings confirm that cherry price formation in Türkiye is characterized by pronounced asymmetric dynamics driven primarily by foreign trade variables. These results highlight the importance of incorporating asymmetric modeling approaches into agricultural price analysis and provide valuable insights for the design of production planning, export strategies, and price stabilization policies aimed at reducing market volatility and enhancing income stability for producers.</p>

Asymmetric Effects of Production and Foreign Trade Dynamics on Cherry Prices in Türkiye

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发表日期：

2026年5月4日

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Esra Kaplan,
H. Sibel Gülse Bal,
Aysel Ergün

摘要

This study investigates the effects of production and foreign trade dynamics on cherry prices in Türkiye within an asymmetric framework. Given the increasing importance of cherry production and exports for Türkiye’s agricultural sector, understanding whether price responses to positive and negative shocks differ in magnitude and direction is crucial for both market participants and policymakers. Using annual data covering the period 2004–2023 obtained from the FAOSTAT database, the study examines the relationships between cherry prices, production volume, export quantity, import quantity, and yield. To determine the stationarity properties of the variables, the residual augmented least squares augmented Dickey–Fuller (RALS-ADF) unit root test was employed, which allows for non-normal error structures such as skewness and kurtosis. The long-run relationships among the variables were analyzed using the RALS-EG cointegration test, a modified version of the Engle–Granger approach with higher statistical power under non-normal disturbances. Finally, the Hatemi‑J (2012) asymmetric impulse–response analysis was applied to examine the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks in production and foreign trade variables on cherry prices. The empirical results indicate that all variables are stationary at lag (1) and exhibit a strong long-run cointegration relationship with cherry prices. The cointegration analysis reveals that exports and imports are the most influential long-term determinants of cherry prices, followed by production volume and yield. The asymmetric impulse-response findings demonstrate that negative shocks in export volume exert significantly stronger and more persistent effects on cherry prices than positive shocks, while positive shocks in imports generate reverse and dominant impacts on prices. In contrast, production volume exhibits a largely symmetric effect, and the influence of yield remains relatively weak. Overall, the findings confirm that cherry price formation in Türkiye is characterized by pronounced asymmetric dynamics driven primarily by foreign trade variables. These results highlight the importance of incorporating asymmetric modeling approaches into agricultural price analysis and provide valuable insights for the design of production planning, export strategies, and price stabilization policies aimed at reducing market volatility and enhancing income stability for producers.