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<p>This study analyzes long-term citrus production trends and forecasts future output for major producers of pomelos and grapefruits, oranges, and tangerines/mandarins/clementines using annual data from 1961 to 2023. This study used time-series forecasting methods to analyze trends in citrus and to predict future patterns. The empirical results reveal heterogeneous production trajectories across countries. China shows strong growth in pomelos and grapefruits (10.56%), while Israel declines by 13.51%. In the orange sector, Brazil and Mexico remain stable, whereas the United States declines by 3.63%. For tangerines/mandarins/clementines, Spain exhibits solid growth (8.88%), China stabilizes with modest gains (0.78%), and Japan continues its downward trend (−4%). Forecast accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE) confirm the reliability of the models relative to each country’s historical volatility. The findings support stakeholders in anticipating production risk and opportunities in the global citrus sector.</p>

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Predicting the Future of Citrus: Country-Level Forecasts for Production in Leading Producer Nations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Humayun Khan,
  • Qi Chunjie

摘要

This study analyzes long-term citrus production trends and forecasts future output for major producers of pomelos and grapefruits, oranges, and tangerines/mandarins/clementines using annual data from 1961 to 2023. This study used time-series forecasting methods to analyze trends in citrus and to predict future patterns. The empirical results reveal heterogeneous production trajectories across countries. China shows strong growth in pomelos and grapefruits (10.56%), while Israel declines by 13.51%. In the orange sector, Brazil and Mexico remain stable, whereas the United States declines by 3.63%. For tangerines/mandarins/clementines, Spain exhibits solid growth (8.88%), China stabilizes with modest gains (0.78%), and Japan continues its downward trend (−4%). Forecast accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE) confirm the reliability of the models relative to each country’s historical volatility. The findings support stakeholders in anticipating production risk and opportunities in the global citrus sector.