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<p>The primary objective of this study was to forecast olive production. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used in time-series analysis to achieve this objective. The study estimated world output data for the years 2023–2027 based on data from 1961–2022. The combined proportion of olive production from the top five countries declined from 83.59% in 1961–1970 to 72.31% in 2011–2020 and further to 66.95% in 2021–2022. Italy was the leading producer from 1961 to 1980, but it was surpassed by Spain. In 2010, Italy and Greece switched rankings, with Greece now in second place and Italy in third. Türkiye is the fourth country overall. Portugal, Tunisia, and Morocco currently share the fifth spot; however it is anticipated that they will be ranked in a&#xa0;different country next year. From 2018 to 2022, the top seven olive-producing nations accounted for 85.28% of the world’s total olive production. It is expected that between 2023 and 2027, olive production will contribute to 79.54% of the global total. Countries affected by climate change and fires can address production issues by implementing strategies to improve irrigation concerns.</p>

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Olive Production Forecasts in the Leader Countries for 2023–2027

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月26日

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  • Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu,
  • Tuba Ateş

摘要

The primary objective of this study was to forecast olive production. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used in time-series analysis to achieve this objective. The study estimated world output data for the years 2023–2027 based on data from 1961–2022. The combined proportion of olive production from the top five countries declined from 83.59% in 1961–1970 to 72.31% in 2011–2020 and further to 66.95% in 2021–2022. Italy was the leading producer from 1961 to 1980, but it was surpassed by Spain. In 2010, Italy and Greece switched rankings, with Greece now in second place and Italy in third. Türkiye is the fourth country overall. Portugal, Tunisia, and Morocco currently share the fifth spot; however it is anticipated that they will be ranked in a different country next year. From 2018 to 2022, the top seven olive-producing nations accounted for 85.28% of the world’s total olive production. It is expected that between 2023 and 2027, olive production will contribute to 79.54% of the global total. Countries affected by climate change and fires can address production issues by implementing strategies to improve irrigation concerns.