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<p>The tomato leaf miner, <i>Tuta</i> Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), has rapidly invaded China, posing significant threats to agricultural systems. This study investigates its dispersal dynamics and climatic niche shifts within Chinese agroecosystems. By integrating six years of nationwide monitoring data with mathematical models, we reconstruct invasion pathways and quantify niche changes. Results reveal bifurcated dispersal corridors originating from Xinjiang and Yunnan, with median dispersal rates of 1,098.79&#xa0;m/day and notable long-distance events. Climatic niche analysis indicates substantial expansion in China compared to other invaded ranges, particularly in temperature and precipitation variables. These findings highlight the role of human-mediated transport and climatic niche change in driving <i>T. absoluta</i>’s rapid spread, underscoring the need for targeted biosecurity measures and dynamic management strategies to mitigate its impact on Solanaceous crops.</p>

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Modeling the spread patterns and climatic niche dynamics of the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta following its invasion of China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月22日

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  • Yantao Xue,
  • Cong Huang,
  • Xiaoqing Xian,
  • Wanxue Liu,
  • Fanghao Wan,
  • Nicolas Desneux,
  • Guifen Zhang,
  • Yibo Zhang

摘要

The tomato leaf miner, Tuta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), has rapidly invaded China, posing significant threats to agricultural systems. This study investigates its dispersal dynamics and climatic niche shifts within Chinese agroecosystems. By integrating six years of nationwide monitoring data with mathematical models, we reconstruct invasion pathways and quantify niche changes. Results reveal bifurcated dispersal corridors originating from Xinjiang and Yunnan, with median dispersal rates of 1,098.79 m/day and notable long-distance events. Climatic niche analysis indicates substantial expansion in China compared to other invaded ranges, particularly in temperature and precipitation variables. These findings highlight the role of human-mediated transport and climatic niche change in driving T. absoluta’s rapid spread, underscoring the need for targeted biosecurity measures and dynamic management strategies to mitigate its impact on Solanaceous crops.