<p>Projecting the precise impacts of climate change is challenging due to uncertainties in climate trends. Adaptation planning could be done using the information provided on climatic risks together with assessing different irrigation systems and strategies that could be employed for increased agricultural resilience. This study focuses on the deltaic region of southern India, a highly climate-sensitive agricultural area and it evaluates climate risk at the village level. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT +) model was used for watershed simulation, calibration, and validation with observed data. We analysed key water balance components, including runoff and evapotranspiration, to estimate risks of floods and droughts. The analysis showed there is a 46% chance of a flood, which happens about every five years, during the samba season when the main monsoon rice crop grows. There is also a 75% chance of a drought, which occurs about every two years, in the summer. River and canal irrigation is mostly used in the Cauvery delta area. In the computation of irrigation supply from Cauvery headwaters, it has been found that there is a deficit of irrigation in 89% of the villages. during the samba and kuruvai cropping seasons are the most significant risk. Therefore, we compared an irrigation supply–demand model against the Traditional Irrigation Method (TIM) and the System of Rice Intensification (SRI). The SRI improved irrigation efficiency by 24% in the Kuruvai season. This approach reduced water deficits along with pond restoration in high-risk villages and decreased overall climate risk from 5.78 to 0.91%. This framework brings together hazard, vulnerability, exposure and adaptation assessments to help guide decisions. It gives policymakers and planners a clear way to create Climate Adaptation Action Plans for delta regions around the world, helping them prepare for both floods and droughts.</p>

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Response scenario-based climate risk assessment at village-level for the Cauvery delta region

  • Malarvizhi Ramaswamy,
  • Ramachandran Andimuthu,
  • Ahamed Ibrahim,
  • Pavithrapriya Srinivasan,
  • Kurian Joseph

摘要

Projecting the precise impacts of climate change is challenging due to uncertainties in climate trends. Adaptation planning could be done using the information provided on climatic risks together with assessing different irrigation systems and strategies that could be employed for increased agricultural resilience. This study focuses on the deltaic region of southern India, a highly climate-sensitive agricultural area and it evaluates climate risk at the village level. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT +) model was used for watershed simulation, calibration, and validation with observed data. We analysed key water balance components, including runoff and evapotranspiration, to estimate risks of floods and droughts. The analysis showed there is a 46% chance of a flood, which happens about every five years, during the samba season when the main monsoon rice crop grows. There is also a 75% chance of a drought, which occurs about every two years, in the summer. River and canal irrigation is mostly used in the Cauvery delta area. In the computation of irrigation supply from Cauvery headwaters, it has been found that there is a deficit of irrigation in 89% of the villages. during the samba and kuruvai cropping seasons are the most significant risk. Therefore, we compared an irrigation supply–demand model against the Traditional Irrigation Method (TIM) and the System of Rice Intensification (SRI). The SRI improved irrigation efficiency by 24% in the Kuruvai season. This approach reduced water deficits along with pond restoration in high-risk villages and decreased overall climate risk from 5.78 to 0.91%. This framework brings together hazard, vulnerability, exposure and adaptation assessments to help guide decisions. It gives policymakers and planners a clear way to create Climate Adaptation Action Plans for delta regions around the world, helping them prepare for both floods and droughts.