Time-varying sectoral exchange rate pass-through and its structural drivers: the case of Turkish manufacturing industries
摘要
This study examines how exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) varies across manufacturing sectors and which structural factors account for this heterogeneity over time. As a first step, the study constructs sector-level nominal effective exchange rate indices, generating a unique dataset that allows exchange rate movements to be matched directly to sector-specific trade structures. Using these indices, ERPT is estimated for Turkish manufacturing industries within a heterogeneous panel data framework. To enable systemic cross-sector comparison, a relative pass-through measure is developed that benchmarks each sector’s ERPT against the manufacturing sector average. The analysis further explores the role of key structural characteristics—including trade openness, productivity, and global value chain participation—in shaping sectoral ERPT dynamics. The empirical results reveal significant disparities in pass-through across sectors, with persistent differences in sensitivity of exchange rate fluctuations. Structural determinants exhibit asymmetric effects: higher trade openness and deeper productivity tends to dampen ERPT. These findings highlights the importance of sector-specific characteristics for inflation dynamics and offer valuable policy insights for monetary and trade policy design.