The remittance-led Dutch disease: an analysis from a two-agent, two-sector DSGE model
摘要
This study analyzes the Dutch disease effect of remittances using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. While the recent increase in remittance inflows may induce Dutch disease through real exchange rate appreciation and the resource movement effect, the empirical evidence varies across countries and regions. To address this gap, this study develops a two-agent DSGE model that incorporates hand-to-mouth households that lack access to international capital markets and spend all of their labor and remittance income within the current period, reflecting the key characteristics of remittance-receiving households. Using Bayesian estimation based on Mexican data, the analysis finds that an exogenous remittance shock can lead to an increase in labor supply and an expansion of the tradable sector, provided that there is a sufficiently large share of Ricardian households and no income effect from remittances. These findings suggest that the macroeconomic consequences of the remittance-led Dutch disease depend on the behavior of recipient households and how remittances are used, highlighting the potential to mitigate the resource movement effect, especially when remittances are channeled into investment.