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<p>Using monthly Census import data from 2002 to 2024, this paper analyzes pass through effects of import costs onto import, producer and consumer inflation. Using time-series local projection methods, I demonstrate that a 1 percentage point shock in annual growth rates of shipping charges per import transaction impacts consumer inflation for about 10 months, peaking at roughly 10 basis points 6 months after the shock– aligning with existing literature. I go on to show that pass through effects to PPI are higher and occur sooner than that for consumer products. I then exploit the granularity available in the data to show that shocks to shipping costs for consumer products, semiconductors, sea vessel shipping costs and imports from China significantly pass through to general PPI and CPI inflation.</p>

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International shipping costs pass through to inflation; evidence using census import data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月13日

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  • James R. Boohaker

摘要

Using monthly Census import data from 2002 to 2024, this paper analyzes pass through effects of import costs onto import, producer and consumer inflation. Using time-series local projection methods, I demonstrate that a 1 percentage point shock in annual growth rates of shipping charges per import transaction impacts consumer inflation for about 10 months, peaking at roughly 10 basis points 6 months after the shock– aligning with existing literature. I go on to show that pass through effects to PPI are higher and occur sooner than that for consumer products. I then exploit the granularity available in the data to show that shocks to shipping costs for consumer products, semiconductors, sea vessel shipping costs and imports from China significantly pass through to general PPI and CPI inflation.