The real economy and financial crises: analyzing economic collapse and economic inferiority
摘要
This paper examines the complex relationship between real economic factors and financial crises, presenting the notions of economic collapse and economic inferiority. We contest conventional monetary theories that prioritize the money supply’s influence on financial instability, drawing on the foundational research of Nobel laureates Bernanke, Diamond, and Dybvig. We emphasize that actual economic distortions, including structural deficiencies and sectoral underachievement, may be more pivotal in instigating crises. Employing a mixed-methods approach, which encompasses statistical analysis of economic data from 1980 to 2023 and case studies of significant financial crises, we ascertain that indicators of real economic vitality, such as GDP growth, employment rates, and industrial productivity, consistently predict and signal elevated crisis risk, often outperforming monetary aggregates in out-of-sample evaluation. Importantly, the empirical framework is designed for prediction and risk assessment rather than causal inference. The findings therefore indicate that real economic distortions are systematically associated with higher crisis probability, rather than establishing direct causal effects. The study contributes to the literature by integrating real and financial dimensions into a unified early-warning perspective and highlights the relevance of monitoring structural economic weaknesses as part of risk surveillance and crisis forecasting frameworks.