Abstract <p>Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified in frequency, duration, and intensity due to global warming, posing profound threats to marine ecosystems. While satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) datasets are the cornerstone of MHW detection, their reliability remains a critical concern. Specifically, multi-source Level-4 (L4) analysis datasets may introduce substantial uncertainties in regional MHW assessments, particularly within climatically sensitive hotspots. However, a systematic evaluation of these uncertainties across diverse oceanographic regimes remains lacking. This study systematically evaluates the consistency of three widely used global L4 SST products—NOAA OISST v2.1, REMSS MWIR v5.1, and UKMO OSTIA. The assessment spans two contrasting environments: the Eastern China Marginal Seas (representing complex coastal dynamics) and the Northeastern Pacific (representing open-ocean conditions). Additionally, the 2013–2016 “The Blob” event is analyzed as a benchmark case. Key findings reveal: (1) While the three products show strong consistency in mean-state MHW metrics, they differ noticeably in long-term trend estimates. In regions with weak trend signals, relative deviations can be large, indicating that trend detection in such areas is subject to substantial uncertainty. (2) Intensity-related metrics show significantly higher uncertainty than frequency-related metrics. Notably, in the Bering Sea, different products yield divergent signals regarding MHW occurrence. (3) During “The Blob,” absolute discrepancies in total duration and cumulative intensity reached up to 150 <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and 250 <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:^\circ\:\text{C}\cdot\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, respectively. These differences may influence the assessment of ecological stress, although the magnitude of this impact requires further validation. This study suggests that reliance on a single SST product may introduce uncertainty, particularly for regional or event-based assessments, and highlights the potential benefits of incorporating multi-source ensemble approaches in future MHW analyses.</p> Clinical trial registration <p>The authors state that this study does not involve clinical trials.</p>

Consistency and uncertainty in marine heatwave monitoring using multi-source satellite sst products: insights from marginal seas and open oceans

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年7月22日

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Wenjie Yao,
Jia Li,
Huiwen Cai,
Wenbin Yin

摘要

Abstract

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified in frequency, duration, and intensity due to global warming, posing profound threats to marine ecosystems. While satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) datasets are the cornerstone of MHW detection, their reliability remains a critical concern. Specifically, multi-source Level-4 (L4) analysis datasets may introduce substantial uncertainties in regional MHW assessments, particularly within climatically sensitive hotspots. However, a systematic evaluation of these uncertainties across diverse oceanographic regimes remains lacking. This study systematically evaluates the consistency of three widely used global L4 SST products—NOAA OISST v2.1, REMSS MWIR v5.1, and UKMO OSTIA. The assessment spans two contrasting environments: the Eastern China Marginal Seas (representing complex coastal dynamics) and the Northeastern Pacific (representing open-ocean conditions). Additionally, the 2013–2016 “The Blob” event is analyzed as a benchmark case. Key findings reveal: (1) While the three products show strong consistency in mean-state MHW metrics, they differ noticeably in long-term trend estimates. In regions with weak trend signals, relative deviations can be large, indicating that trend detection in such areas is subject to substantial uncertainty. (2) Intensity-related metrics show significantly higher uncertainty than frequency-related metrics. Notably, in the Bering Sea, different products yield divergent signals regarding MHW occurrence. (3) During “The Blob,” absolute discrepancies in total duration and cumulative intensity reached up to 150 \(\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\) and 250 \(\:^\circ\:\text{C}\cdot\:\text{d}\text{a}\text{y}\text{s}\) , respectively. These differences may influence the assessment of ecological stress, although the magnitude of this impact requires further validation. This study suggests that reliance on a single SST product may introduce uncertainty, particularly for regional or event-based assessments, and highlights the potential benefits of incorporating multi-source ensemble approaches in future MHW analyses.

Clinical trial registration

The authors state that this study does not involve clinical trials.