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<p>The Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are part of the North Indian Ocean (NIO), one of the world’s most vulnerable areas for Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Our study provides a comprehensive decadal analysis (1981–2020) on a seasonal basis to investigate the rapid intensification (RI) phenomenon in TCs over the NIO. Significant environmental parameters, such as vertical wind shear (VWS), atmospheric moisture content, sea surface temperature (SST), and others, are carefully examined to identify patterns that favor rapid strengthening, and they exhibit strong positive correlations across the main development region (MDR). This work aims to identify the climatological features of these intensity variations throughout the NIO areas. The focus is on RI and the variables that affect it, defined as a 35-knot (18&#xa0;m/s) increase in wind speed within 24&#xa0;h. The results show seasonality and basin sensitivity in the TCs generated over the NIO basin. There has been a noticeable trend in TCs since 2000, with at least one in three cyclones being of a higher category. RI onset occurs early in the majority of TCs. Most of India’s vulnerability is found in the eastern states, especially Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. SST and moisture levels are higher, and VWS is lower in cyclogenesis areas associated with RI instances. The number of TCs is increasing by 0.019 cyclones per year, according to our analysis. The number of the top four cyclone categories has increased over the last 30 years, with heightened cyclonic activity observed during the post-monsoon season in the basin (Sagar AK, Chakraborty A, J Atmos Sci Res 7(4):13–22, <CitationRef CitationID="CR27">2024</CitationRef>; Sagar et al., Nat Haz 121:15255–15274,<CitationRef CitationID="CR29">2025a</CitationRef>; Sagar et al., Results Earth Sci 3:100078, <CitationRef CitationID="CR30">2025b</CitationRef>).</p>

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Rapid strengthening of tropical cyclones and their characteristics across the decades over the North Indian ocean

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Akshay Kumar Sagar,
  • Priyankar Kumar,
  • Akshat Dimri

摘要

The Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are part of the North Indian Ocean (NIO), one of the world’s most vulnerable areas for Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Our study provides a comprehensive decadal analysis (1981–2020) on a seasonal basis to investigate the rapid intensification (RI) phenomenon in TCs over the NIO. Significant environmental parameters, such as vertical wind shear (VWS), atmospheric moisture content, sea surface temperature (SST), and others, are carefully examined to identify patterns that favor rapid strengthening, and they exhibit strong positive correlations across the main development region (MDR). This work aims to identify the climatological features of these intensity variations throughout the NIO areas. The focus is on RI and the variables that affect it, defined as a 35-knot (18 m/s) increase in wind speed within 24 h. The results show seasonality and basin sensitivity in the TCs generated over the NIO basin. There has been a noticeable trend in TCs since 2000, with at least one in three cyclones being of a higher category. RI onset occurs early in the majority of TCs. Most of India’s vulnerability is found in the eastern states, especially Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. SST and moisture levels are higher, and VWS is lower in cyclogenesis areas associated with RI instances. The number of TCs is increasing by 0.019 cyclones per year, according to our analysis. The number of the top four cyclone categories has increased over the last 30 years, with heightened cyclonic activity observed during the post-monsoon season in the basin (Sagar AK, Chakraborty A, J Atmos Sci Res 7(4):13–22, 2024; Sagar et al., Nat Haz 121:15255–15274,2025a; Sagar et al., Results Earth Sci 3:100078, 2025b).