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<p>Sea Level Rise (SLR) is well-known adverse consequence of climate change. However, its impact varies significantly across regions, making it location-specific and crucial for effective coastal management strategies. We focus on the development of a new hydroclimatic reconstruction model that combines satellite and tide gauge data to reconstruct historical regional SLR, revealing significant spatial variations and providing detailed future projections under different climate change scenarios. Considering Bay of Bengal as the study area, this research innovatively combines historical monthly satellite-based sea level anomaly (SLA) data (1993–2021), influenced by both climatic and oceanic factors, with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for basis function generation. These functions are then integrated with existing tide gauge observations to reconstruct a more extended regional sea level record (1950–2021) in the study region, with a specific focus on the vulnerability of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Sundarbans, the world’s largest Mangrove Forest. The developed model projects the regional SLR until 2100 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), effectively capturing the spatially varying nature of SLR across the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Notably, the findings reveal a more pronounced future sea level rise trends in the southern BoB compared to the northern BoB. Under the most severe scenario, SSP5-8.5, the model predicts a maximum SLR rate of nearly 19.5&#xa0;mm/year (95th percentile). Even the least severe scenario, i.e., SSP1-2.6, suggests a substantial rise of approximately 14.5&#xa0;mm/year (95th percentile). Alarmingly, the maximum futuristic sea level rise by the end of 2100 under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected to be around 1620&#xa0;mm (relative to the 1995–2014 average), inclusive of contributions from melting glaciers and ice sheets. These projections pose a significant threat, particularly to the Indian archipelago of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Sundarbans situated within the BoB. Above 1340&#xa0;mm and 1300&#xa0;mm (relative to the 1995–2014 average) sea level at Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Sundarbans respectively, projected for SSP2-4.5 scenario by the end of year 2100.</p>

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Sea level rise projections for the Bay of Bengal and implications for vulnerable coastal regions using a hydroclimatic reconstruction model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • A. Naren,
  • Rajib Maity

摘要

Sea Level Rise (SLR) is well-known adverse consequence of climate change. However, its impact varies significantly across regions, making it location-specific and crucial for effective coastal management strategies. We focus on the development of a new hydroclimatic reconstruction model that combines satellite and tide gauge data to reconstruct historical regional SLR, revealing significant spatial variations and providing detailed future projections under different climate change scenarios. Considering Bay of Bengal as the study area, this research innovatively combines historical monthly satellite-based sea level anomaly (SLA) data (1993–2021), influenced by both climatic and oceanic factors, with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for basis function generation. These functions are then integrated with existing tide gauge observations to reconstruct a more extended regional sea level record (1950–2021) in the study region, with a specific focus on the vulnerability of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Sundarbans, the world’s largest Mangrove Forest. The developed model projects the regional SLR until 2100 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), effectively capturing the spatially varying nature of SLR across the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Notably, the findings reveal a more pronounced future sea level rise trends in the southern BoB compared to the northern BoB. Under the most severe scenario, SSP5-8.5, the model predicts a maximum SLR rate of nearly 19.5 mm/year (95th percentile). Even the least severe scenario, i.e., SSP1-2.6, suggests a substantial rise of approximately 14.5 mm/year (95th percentile). Alarmingly, the maximum futuristic sea level rise by the end of 2100 under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected to be around 1620 mm (relative to the 1995–2014 average), inclusive of contributions from melting glaciers and ice sheets. These projections pose a significant threat, particularly to the Indian archipelago of Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Sundarbans situated within the BoB. Above 1340 mm and 1300 mm (relative to the 1995–2014 average) sea level at Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Sundarbans respectively, projected for SSP2-4.5 scenario by the end of year 2100.