<p>Fix a planning period <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(T&gt;0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>T</mi> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, an arbitrage free pricing model providing us with the current numerical price of a general random pay-off with maturity at <i>T</i>, and a coherent risk measure. Denote by <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {Q}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">Q</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {P}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">P</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> the risk neutral and the physical probability measure, respectively. Denote finally by <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(d\mathbb {Q}/d\mathbb {P}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">Q</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">P</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> the Radon-Nikodym derivative of <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {Q}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">Q</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> with respect to <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathbb {P}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">P</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and by <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( I_{0}\ge 0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>≥</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> the essential infimum of <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(d\mathbb {Q}/d\mathbb {P}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>d</mi> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">Q</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mi>d</mi> <mi mathvariant="double-struck">P</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Consider <InlineEquation ID="IEq9"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\varepsilon &gt;0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>ε</mi> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq10"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(k&gt;\varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. A marketed claim <InlineEquation ID="IEq11"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(y\ge 0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>y</mi> <mo>≥</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> with a current price lower than <InlineEquation ID="IEq12"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( \varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>ε</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, an expected pay-off higher than <i>k</i>, and a coherent risk lower than <InlineEquation ID="IEq13"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(-k\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is said to be a <InlineEquation ID="IEq14"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -strongly\_golden\_strategy\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mfenced close=")" open="("> <mi>k</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mfenced> <mo>-</mo> <mi>s</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>r</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>g</mi> <mi>l</mi> <mi>y</mi> <mi>_</mi> <mi>g</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>l</mi> <mi>d</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>_</mi> <mi>s</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>r</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>g</mi> <mi>y</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> (<InlineEquation ID="IEq15"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mfenced close=")" open="("> <mi>k</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mfenced> <mo>-</mo> <mi>S</mi> <mi>G</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>). Since this investment strategy does not entail any liabilities (<InlineEquation ID="IEq16"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(y\ge 0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>y</mi> <mo>≥</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), the potential capital losses are bounded by <InlineEquation ID="IEq17"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>ε</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, whereas the potential capital earnings <InlineEquation ID="IEq18"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( y-\varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>y</mi> <mo>-</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> are significant if <InlineEquation ID="IEq19"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(k/\varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is large enough. Most risk measures do not allow for the existence of any <InlineEquation ID="IEq20"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( \left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mfenced close=")" open="("> <mi>k</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mfenced> <mo>-</mo> <mi>S</mi> <mi>G</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> if <InlineEquation ID="IEq21"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(k/\varepsilon \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is large, but the expectile does if <InlineEquation ID="IEq22"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(I_{0}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is close to zero. In particular, if <InlineEquation ID="IEq23"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(I_{0}=0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, then there exists a <InlineEquation ID="IEq24"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mfenced close=")" open="("> <mi>k</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mfenced> <mo>-</mo> <mi>S</mi> <mi>G</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> for every <InlineEquation ID="IEq25"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(0&lt;\varepsilon &lt;k\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mi>ε</mi> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and the equality <InlineEquation ID="IEq26"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( I_{0}=0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> frequently holds in continuous time (Black-Scholes-Merton model, Heston model, etc.). This might be a significant difference between the expectile and other coherent risk measures such as the conditional value at risk. In addition, it is proved that the strategy <i>y</i> above is easy to detect in practice and may be often composed of simple derivative securities. Thus, though this paper is only theoretical, providing simple criteria for the practical detection of a <InlineEquation ID="IEq27"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mfenced close=")" open="("> <mi>k</mi> <mo>,</mo> <mi>ε</mi> </mfenced> <mo>-</mo> <mi>S</mi> <mi>G</mi> <mi>S</mi> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> facilitates the implementation of future empirical tests.</p>

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Expectile-linked golden investment strategies

  • Alejandro Balbás,
  • Beatriz Balbás,
  • Raquel Balbás

摘要

Fix a planning period \(T>0\) T > 0 , an arbitrage free pricing model providing us with the current numerical price of a general random pay-off with maturity at T, and a coherent risk measure. Denote by \(\mathbb {Q}\) Q and \(\mathbb {P}\) P the risk neutral and the physical probability measure, respectively. Denote finally by \(d\mathbb {Q}/d\mathbb {P}\) d Q / d P the Radon-Nikodym derivative of \(\mathbb {Q}\) Q with respect to \(\mathbb {P}\) P , and by \( I_{0}\ge 0\) I 0 0 the essential infimum of \(d\mathbb {Q}/d\mathbb {P}\) d Q / d P . Consider \(\varepsilon >0\) ε > 0 and \(k>\varepsilon \) k > ε . A marketed claim \(y\ge 0\) y 0 with a current price lower than \( \varepsilon \) ε , an expected pay-off higher than k, and a coherent risk lower than \(-k\) - k is said to be a \(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -strongly\_golden\_strategy\) k , ε - s t r o n g l y _ g o l d e n _ s t r a t e g y ( \(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\) k , ε - S G S ). Since this investment strategy does not entail any liabilities ( \(y\ge 0\) y 0 ), the potential capital losses are bounded by \(\varepsilon \) ε , whereas the potential capital earnings \( y-\varepsilon \) y - ε are significant if \(k/\varepsilon \) k / ε is large enough. Most risk measures do not allow for the existence of any \( \left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\) k , ε - S G S if \(k/\varepsilon \) k / ε is large, but the expectile does if \(I_{0}\) I 0 is close to zero. In particular, if \(I_{0}=0\) I 0 = 0 , then there exists a \(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS\) k , ε - S G S for every \(0<\varepsilon <k\) 0 < ε < k , and the equality \( I_{0}=0\) I 0 = 0 frequently holds in continuous time (Black-Scholes-Merton model, Heston model, etc.). This might be a significant difference between the expectile and other coherent risk measures such as the conditional value at risk. In addition, it is proved that the strategy y above is easy to detect in practice and may be often composed of simple derivative securities. Thus, though this paper is only theoretical, providing simple criteria for the practical detection of a \(\left( k,\varepsilon \right) -SGS \) k , ε - S G S facilitates the implementation of future empirical tests.