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<p>In this study, we applied a river temperature model based on the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to the Takatsu River Basin in Japan, and verified the model accuracy for 2020 using continuous basin-wide river temperature monitoring data. Furthermore, we predicted the future river temperature using rainfall and air temperature projections from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 2-degree and 4-degree rise experiments. The basin-wide river temperature was predicted with good accuracy. During the summer months of June through August, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of river temperature was less than 1.5&#xa0;°C at most stations. For future predictions, river temperature increased significantly with changes in river rainfall and air temperature. The spatial distribution of monthly river temperatures in August showed no river sections with river temperature above 30&#xa0;°C in the present and 2-degree rise experiments, while the 4-degree rise experiment showed such river temperatures throughout the downstream area. Monthly river temperature in January was predicted to exceed 10&#xa0;°C across the basin under the 4-degree scenario.</p>

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Prediction of climate change impacts of basin-wide river temperature using rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model incorporating river temperature model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

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  • Daichi Fukumaru,
  • Masayasu Irie,
  • Yoshihisa Akamatsu

摘要

In this study, we applied a river temperature model based on the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to the Takatsu River Basin in Japan, and verified the model accuracy for 2020 using continuous basin-wide river temperature monitoring data. Furthermore, we predicted the future river temperature using rainfall and air temperature projections from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 2-degree and 4-degree rise experiments. The basin-wide river temperature was predicted with good accuracy. During the summer months of June through August, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of river temperature was less than 1.5 °C at most stations. For future predictions, river temperature increased significantly with changes in river rainfall and air temperature. The spatial distribution of monthly river temperatures in August showed no river sections with river temperature above 30 °C in the present and 2-degree rise experiments, while the 4-degree rise experiment showed such river temperatures throughout the downstream area. Monthly river temperature in January was predicted to exceed 10 °C across the basin under the 4-degree scenario.