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<p>In years of growing pharmaceutical expenditures, many European countries have adopted Health Technology Assessment (HTA) frameworks to align drug prices with clinical value. Germany’s 2011 AMNOG reform introduced mandatory price negotiations for new medicines, based on their added therapeutic benefit. This paper estimates the causal impact of AMNOG on anticancer drug prices using a triple-difference approach and a panel of 77 drugs launched between 2007 and 2017 across 24 OECD countries. The reform led to a 15.8% reduction in post-negotiation prices in Germany, and there is no evidence that manufacturers raised launch prices strategically in anticipation of future negotiated reductions. These findings confirm the effectiveness of HTA-based pricing mechanisms and contribute to ongoing policy discussions on sustainable pharmaceutical pricing in Europe.</p>

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The Impact of Health Technology Assessment on Pharmaceutical Prices: Evidence from Germany

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月25日

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  • Giovanni Righetti

摘要

In years of growing pharmaceutical expenditures, many European countries have adopted Health Technology Assessment (HTA) frameworks to align drug prices with clinical value. Germany’s 2011 AMNOG reform introduced mandatory price negotiations for new medicines, based on their added therapeutic benefit. This paper estimates the causal impact of AMNOG on anticancer drug prices using a triple-difference approach and a panel of 77 drugs launched between 2007 and 2017 across 24 OECD countries. The reform led to a 15.8% reduction in post-negotiation prices in Germany, and there is no evidence that manufacturers raised launch prices strategically in anticipation of future negotiated reductions. These findings confirm the effectiveness of HTA-based pricing mechanisms and contribute to ongoing policy discussions on sustainable pharmaceutical pricing in Europe.