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<p>Recent decades have witnessed population displacement in Himalaya, as residents from rural areas migrate toward nearest urban centres. These urbanized hill stations, however, are increasingly exposed to frequent hazards alongside rapid infrastructural development, which is driven by growing populations and tourist influx. Despite the critical interrelationship between population dynamics, development and hazards, few studies have attempted to explore these patterns. This study identifies the main drivers of population displacement or migration in Uttarakhand’s major river valleys by evaluating hazards (landslides, earthquakes and cloudburst) against socio-economic (road network and health centres) factors. A temporal analysis (difference of post-2010 and pre-2010 inventory) reveals a surge in landslide activity; landslides increased from 3742 to 5759 in the Alaknanda-Mandakini valleys and from 1461 to 2890 in the Bhagirathi-Yamuna valleys. Total landslide area expanded at a rate of 1.82 km<sup>2</sup>/year. Furthermore, the pre-2010 period witnessed major seismic events, notably the 1991 and 1999 earthquakes, with landslide clusters overlapping earthquake-weakened zones within the study area. During this time, rainfall remained moderate (5–6&#xa0;mm/day) and cloudbursts were largely confined to smaller tributaries. In contrast, the post-2010 period saw rainfall increase to 7–8&#xa0;mm/day and cloudbursts penetrate deep into high-altitude catchments, despite no major seismic events being recorded. Study observes an emergent socio-environmental pattern, where infrastructural expansion, specifically road networks enhance accessibility, driving an 18.7% increase in built-up areas during 2010–2021. This development attracts larger populations and tourist influxes but often prioritizes immediate socio-economic goals while overlooking the risks of cascading disasters. By utilizing spatial-overlapping method and principal component analysis, this study concludes that development is the dominant driver of human population displacement towards high-risk urban corridors. Consequently, a fundamental shift in the development regime is proposed by prioritising disaster risk reduction in planning and increasing investment in rural healthcare and livelihoods to alleviate pressure on vulnerable urban river corridors.</p>

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Evolving Hazards, Infrastructure Development, and Population Dynamics in Uttarakhand, NW Himalaya

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Neha Chauhan,
  • Vipin Kumar,
  • Avijit Sahay,
  • Abhisek K. Srivastav,
  • Rahul Ranjan,
  • Yaspal Sundriyal,
  • Rajiv Sinha,
  • Hugh Sinclair,
  • Gargi Dangwal,
  • Neeharika Chauhan

摘要

Recent decades have witnessed population displacement in Himalaya, as residents from rural areas migrate toward nearest urban centres. These urbanized hill stations, however, are increasingly exposed to frequent hazards alongside rapid infrastructural development, which is driven by growing populations and tourist influx. Despite the critical interrelationship between population dynamics, development and hazards, few studies have attempted to explore these patterns. This study identifies the main drivers of population displacement or migration in Uttarakhand’s major river valleys by evaluating hazards (landslides, earthquakes and cloudburst) against socio-economic (road network and health centres) factors. A temporal analysis (difference of post-2010 and pre-2010 inventory) reveals a surge in landslide activity; landslides increased from 3742 to 5759 in the Alaknanda-Mandakini valleys and from 1461 to 2890 in the Bhagirathi-Yamuna valleys. Total landslide area expanded at a rate of 1.82 km2/year. Furthermore, the pre-2010 period witnessed major seismic events, notably the 1991 and 1999 earthquakes, with landslide clusters overlapping earthquake-weakened zones within the study area. During this time, rainfall remained moderate (5–6 mm/day) and cloudbursts were largely confined to smaller tributaries. In contrast, the post-2010 period saw rainfall increase to 7–8 mm/day and cloudbursts penetrate deep into high-altitude catchments, despite no major seismic events being recorded. Study observes an emergent socio-environmental pattern, where infrastructural expansion, specifically road networks enhance accessibility, driving an 18.7% increase in built-up areas during 2010–2021. This development attracts larger populations and tourist influxes but often prioritizes immediate socio-economic goals while overlooking the risks of cascading disasters. By utilizing spatial-overlapping method and principal component analysis, this study concludes that development is the dominant driver of human population displacement towards high-risk urban corridors. Consequently, a fundamental shift in the development regime is proposed by prioritising disaster risk reduction in planning and increasing investment in rural healthcare and livelihoods to alleviate pressure on vulnerable urban river corridors.