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<p>Global urbanization has systematically transformed natural landscapes, substantially altering urban microclimates and disrupting regional thermal budgets. While urban heat island (UHI) effects have been extensively studied at city scales, basin-scale thermal heterogeneity (including both heat and cold islands) and its future evolution remain under characterized. As one of China’s most rapidly urbanizing regions, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) presents a critical case for understanding and mitigating UHI effects to ensure sustainable development and human livability. Utilizing MODIS land surface temperature products, this study quantifies the magnitude of summer daytime thermal differentials in the YRB from 2000 to 2022, elucidating land cover change impacts and projecting future thermal trends. The results reveal a 23-year upward trend in basin heat island intensity (BHII), with 13.73% of the basin experiencing statistically significant warming (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). Heat islands exhibit strong spatial clustering, forming contiguous thermal belts along Yangtze River corridors with cross-city and inter-agglomeration thermal synergies. Specifically, concurrent expansion of strong heat islands aligns closely with urban agglomeration growth. Conversely, cold islands predominate in high-altitude, low-population-density ecosystems. Long-term cumulative effects of land cover changes explain most spatiotemporal variability of BHII, with anthropogenic warming partially mitigated by ecological restoration and urban greening. While basin-wide anti-persistent cooling trends dominate projections, persistent UHI risks remain in urban cores. These findings advance basin-scale understanding of human-land-climate interactions, offering references for large-scale UHI risk identification and climate-resilient planning.</p>

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Effects of land cover changes on remotely sensed surface temperature differentials across the Yangtze River Basin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Jing Fu,
  • Xian Guo,
  • Zhongbo Zhang,
  • Kangsheng Chen

摘要

Global urbanization has systematically transformed natural landscapes, substantially altering urban microclimates and disrupting regional thermal budgets. While urban heat island (UHI) effects have been extensively studied at city scales, basin-scale thermal heterogeneity (including both heat and cold islands) and its future evolution remain under characterized. As one of China’s most rapidly urbanizing regions, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) presents a critical case for understanding and mitigating UHI effects to ensure sustainable development and human livability. Utilizing MODIS land surface temperature products, this study quantifies the magnitude of summer daytime thermal differentials in the YRB from 2000 to 2022, elucidating land cover change impacts and projecting future thermal trends. The results reveal a 23-year upward trend in basin heat island intensity (BHII), with 13.73% of the basin experiencing statistically significant warming (p < 0.05). Heat islands exhibit strong spatial clustering, forming contiguous thermal belts along Yangtze River corridors with cross-city and inter-agglomeration thermal synergies. Specifically, concurrent expansion of strong heat islands aligns closely with urban agglomeration growth. Conversely, cold islands predominate in high-altitude, low-population-density ecosystems. Long-term cumulative effects of land cover changes explain most spatiotemporal variability of BHII, with anthropogenic warming partially mitigated by ecological restoration and urban greening. While basin-wide anti-persistent cooling trends dominate projections, persistent UHI risks remain in urban cores. These findings advance basin-scale understanding of human-land-climate interactions, offering references for large-scale UHI risk identification and climate-resilient planning.