<p>Human–wildlife conflict and land cover change are interlinked challenges in Nepal’s mid‐hill landscapes, yet the role of agricultural abandonment and forest regeneration in shaping conflict risk remains underexplored. This study assesses land use/land cover (LULC) change and wild pig (<i>Sus scrofa</i>) conflict susceptibility in Ajayameru Rural Municipality, Sudurpashchim Province, from 2000 to 2024. An integrated approach combined household surveys (<i>n</i> = 121), analysis of satellite-derived LULC maps, and conflict modeling using georeferenced presence points (<i>n</i> = 118) and environmental variables (slope, elevation, LULC, proximity to water and forest). A Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) presence-only model was used to identify conflict-prone areas. LULC analysis revealed a net forest gain of 10.23 km² and a cropland loss of 7.19 km², primarily due to farmland abandonment and secondary forest growth. Survey data indicated that 88% of respondents experienced crop raids mainly on maize, and 48% of forest-adjacent fields were abandoned due to recurring conflict. MaxEnt identified LULC, slope, and proximity to water and forest as key predictors. Areas converted from forest to cropland showed the highest susceptibility, while reforested fields had notably lower risk.A spatio-temporal feedback loop can be observed, where crop damage drives farmland abandonment, leading to reforestation that may locally reduce conflict but expand habitat and shift conflict zones over time. Sustainable agroforestry buffers, mixed-species reforestation of abandoned lands, and targeted measures such as strategic fencing and community monitoring are recommended for high-risk areas. Integrating spatially explicit land management with livelihood support offers a path toward conservation and agricultural resilience in middle mountains of Nepal.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>