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<p>Cocoa remains Ghana’s principal cash crop and a livelihood source for over a million farmers. However, recent yield declines, price volatility and land pressure from illegal mining have diminished its economic appeal, prompting a shift toward more profitable alternatives such as natural rubber. Here we combine satellite-based land use mapping with household survey data to quantify cocoa-to-rubber conversion and identify its socio-economic drivers in the Huni Valley district. Analysis of Landsat imagery (2008–2020) shows that cocoa cover declined by 4.3% while rubber expanded by 4.8%, with 23.5% of cocoa area converted to rubber. Survey data from 390 farmers, analysed using logistic regression, indicate that long-term cocoa farming experience (≥ 31&#xa0;years) and higher formal education significantly increase the likelihood of prioritising investment in rubber, whereas insecure land tenure reduces this propensity. Farmers consistently report lower labour requirements and more stable returns as key advantages of rubber over cocoa. Together, these results reveal a structurally driven reallocation of land and investment away from cocoa, reflecting both economic rationality and systemic constraints within the sector. By integrating spatial and behavioural evidence, this study provides the first empirical assessment of cocoa-to-rubber transition dynamics in Ghana and highlights the need for targeted interventions, including price stabilisation, productivity improvements and tenure reforms, to sustain cocoa production while supporting adaptive land use strategies.</p>

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Agricultural land use change in Ghana: First evidence of cocoa-to-rubber conversion using remote sensing and farmer surveys

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Nana Kwabena Darko,
  • Collins Oduro,
  • Emmanuel Yeboah,
  • Efiba Vidda Senkyire Kwarteng,
  • Joyceline Adom Frimpong

摘要

Cocoa remains Ghana’s principal cash crop and a livelihood source for over a million farmers. However, recent yield declines, price volatility and land pressure from illegal mining have diminished its economic appeal, prompting a shift toward more profitable alternatives such as natural rubber. Here we combine satellite-based land use mapping with household survey data to quantify cocoa-to-rubber conversion and identify its socio-economic drivers in the Huni Valley district. Analysis of Landsat imagery (2008–2020) shows that cocoa cover declined by 4.3% while rubber expanded by 4.8%, with 23.5% of cocoa area converted to rubber. Survey data from 390 farmers, analysed using logistic regression, indicate that long-term cocoa farming experience (≥ 31 years) and higher formal education significantly increase the likelihood of prioritising investment in rubber, whereas insecure land tenure reduces this propensity. Farmers consistently report lower labour requirements and more stable returns as key advantages of rubber over cocoa. Together, these results reveal a structurally driven reallocation of land and investment away from cocoa, reflecting both economic rationality and systemic constraints within the sector. By integrating spatial and behavioural evidence, this study provides the first empirical assessment of cocoa-to-rubber transition dynamics in Ghana and highlights the need for targeted interventions, including price stabilisation, productivity improvements and tenure reforms, to sustain cocoa production while supporting adaptive land use strategies.