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<p>The Argun (<i>Medemia argun</i>) is a vulnerable relict palm confined to hyper-arid regions of southeastern Egypt and northeastern Sudan. This study employed high-performing ensemble predictive distribution models (SDMs) to assess the present and upcoming suitability of Argun under 1–2.6 and 5–8.5 shared socioeconomic pathways of HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR climate models. The models demonstrated robust performance (AUC = 0.96; TSS = 0.88) and recognized precipitation variables, mean diurnal temperature range, isothermality, slope, and wind as the key predictors shaping Argun’s distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitat was limited to 6.57% of the study area, predominantly in southeastern Egypt and northeastern Sudan. Future projections indicate a potential extension of suitable areas, particularly northward, with total suitable areas increasing to as much as 43% of the study region by 2080 under the high emission scenario. However, high-suitability areas remain proportionally small, and localized contractions within current refugia highlight continued vulnerability. These findings suggest that climatic changes might open new niches for Argun range extension, but its highly specialized ecological niche and limited dispersal capacity may constrain natural colonization. The results underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, including protection of existing refugia, groundwater management, habitat connectivity, and potential assisted migration to secure the future of this ancient desert palm.</p>

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Forecasting the future of a desert relict: current and future potential distribution of the rare Argun palm Medemia argun under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Marwa Waseem A. Halmy,
  • Arege Yehia,
  • Manal Fawzy,
  • Ahmed R. Mahmoud

摘要

The Argun (Medemia argun) is a vulnerable relict palm confined to hyper-arid regions of southeastern Egypt and northeastern Sudan. This study employed high-performing ensemble predictive distribution models (SDMs) to assess the present and upcoming suitability of Argun under 1–2.6 and 5–8.5 shared socioeconomic pathways of HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR climate models. The models demonstrated robust performance (AUC = 0.96; TSS = 0.88) and recognized precipitation variables, mean diurnal temperature range, isothermality, slope, and wind as the key predictors shaping Argun’s distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitat was limited to 6.57% of the study area, predominantly in southeastern Egypt and northeastern Sudan. Future projections indicate a potential extension of suitable areas, particularly northward, with total suitable areas increasing to as much as 43% of the study region by 2080 under the high emission scenario. However, high-suitability areas remain proportionally small, and localized contractions within current refugia highlight continued vulnerability. These findings suggest that climatic changes might open new niches for Argun range extension, but its highly specialized ecological niche and limited dispersal capacity may constrain natural colonization. The results underscore the need for proactive conservation measures, including protection of existing refugia, groundwater management, habitat connectivity, and potential assisted migration to secure the future of this ancient desert palm.