<p>Current landscape planning approaches such as Ecological Infrastructure (EI) often overlook the spatial and temporal patterns of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs), with future projections of these dynamics rarely integrated into landscape planning. To address this gap, we applied an archetype analysis approach to investigate temporal archetypes of projected future changes of NCPs in Switzerland. Using deep learning techniques to analyze NCP change data, we identified six distinct archetypal patterns of NCP change under the Business as Usual scenario. These temporal archetypes were then examined in the context of NCP changes projected under alternative nature-positive scenarios, incorporating diverse climate and socio-economic assumptions. Subsequently, the temporal archetypes were compared with projected climate suitability for biodiversity to explore the relationship between NCP changes and biodiversity shifts. Then, we evaluated the dominant factors driving NCP changes. Finally, semi-structured interviews with local experts were conducted to further contextualize the findings. Our results reveal that while some archetypes exhibit gains in regulating NCPs, others experience significant declines in material NCPs. Climate change emerges as the dominant driver, particularly influencing NCPs such as water yield and sediment retention. In contrast, habitat quality and food and feed are disproportionately affected by landuse change. We recommend adopting region-specific management practices that incorporate future projections of NCPs and biodiversity to mitigate projected declines. The findings underscore the importance of collaborative, transdisciplinary approaches in landscape planning that integrate social-ecological considerations. By combining forward-looking insights with localized expert knowledge, planners can better address the challenges of sustaining biodiversity and securing NCPs for the future.</p>

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Temporal archetypes of nature’s contributions to people for sustainable landscape development

  • Sergio Wicki,
  • Benjamin Black,
  • Nathan Külling,
  • Manuel Kurmann,
  • Jinhao Wang,
  • Anthony Lehmann,
  • Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

摘要

Current landscape planning approaches such as Ecological Infrastructure (EI) often overlook the spatial and temporal patterns of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs), with future projections of these dynamics rarely integrated into landscape planning. To address this gap, we applied an archetype analysis approach to investigate temporal archetypes of projected future changes of NCPs in Switzerland. Using deep learning techniques to analyze NCP change data, we identified six distinct archetypal patterns of NCP change under the Business as Usual scenario. These temporal archetypes were then examined in the context of NCP changes projected under alternative nature-positive scenarios, incorporating diverse climate and socio-economic assumptions. Subsequently, the temporal archetypes were compared with projected climate suitability for biodiversity to explore the relationship between NCP changes and biodiversity shifts. Then, we evaluated the dominant factors driving NCP changes. Finally, semi-structured interviews with local experts were conducted to further contextualize the findings. Our results reveal that while some archetypes exhibit gains in regulating NCPs, others experience significant declines in material NCPs. Climate change emerges as the dominant driver, particularly influencing NCPs such as water yield and sediment retention. In contrast, habitat quality and food and feed are disproportionately affected by landuse change. We recommend adopting region-specific management practices that incorporate future projections of NCPs and biodiversity to mitigate projected declines. The findings underscore the importance of collaborative, transdisciplinary approaches in landscape planning that integrate social-ecological considerations. By combining forward-looking insights with localized expert knowledge, planners can better address the challenges of sustaining biodiversity and securing NCPs for the future.