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<p>Climate change, global warming, and natural resource depletion pose significant challenges to global beef cattle farming, with animal heat stress emerging as a widespread limitation. This is particularly critical in Brazil, a major global beef producer and exporter that supplies a substantial portion of the world's food. This study investigated the impact of seasonality changes on beef cattle welfare under various climate change scenarios, using the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI). Our analysis employed CMIP6 ensemble models for historical data and future projections, with a specific focus on the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The research focused on Brazil's most productive cattle farming regions. Historically, the North and Mid-West regions exhibited the highest THI values, mostly between September and December. Projections show low values of THI anomaly in the short-term (2021–2040). However, the medium-term (2041–2060) reveals a significant increase in THI anomalies in the Mid-West and North, with some regions approaching 30&#xa0;days per month of extreme THI (values &gt; 94). The long-term (2061–2080) represents the worst-case scenario, with high THI anomalies persisting year-round across most of Brazil. States like Acre, Amazonas, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia are projected to experience 28–31&#xa0;days per month of extreme THI during critical periods (September-December), while Paraná remains relatively low. The findings underscore an urgent need for robust adaptation strategies, including genetic improvement, integrated crop-livestock systems, and precision livestock farming technologies, alongside national mitigation efforts, to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of Brazilian beef production.</p>

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Climate change impacts and seasonality changes on beef cattle in Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月5日

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  • N. C. R. Ferreira,
  • L. N. Ferreira,
  • D. R. Rosa,
  • R. R. Andrade

摘要

Climate change, global warming, and natural resource depletion pose significant challenges to global beef cattle farming, with animal heat stress emerging as a widespread limitation. This is particularly critical in Brazil, a major global beef producer and exporter that supplies a substantial portion of the world's food. This study investigated the impact of seasonality changes on beef cattle welfare under various climate change scenarios, using the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI). Our analysis employed CMIP6 ensemble models for historical data and future projections, with a specific focus on the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The research focused on Brazil's most productive cattle farming regions. Historically, the North and Mid-West regions exhibited the highest THI values, mostly between September and December. Projections show low values of THI anomaly in the short-term (2021–2040). However, the medium-term (2041–2060) reveals a significant increase in THI anomalies in the Mid-West and North, with some regions approaching 30 days per month of extreme THI (values > 94). The long-term (2061–2080) represents the worst-case scenario, with high THI anomalies persisting year-round across most of Brazil. States like Acre, Amazonas, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia are projected to experience 28–31 days per month of extreme THI during critical periods (September-December), while Paraná remains relatively low. The findings underscore an urgent need for robust adaptation strategies, including genetic improvement, integrated crop-livestock systems, and precision livestock farming technologies, alongside national mitigation efforts, to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of Brazilian beef production.