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<p>Knowledge of future spatiotemporal drought characteristics is important for planning, designing, and implementing efficient as well as tailored drought adaptation and mitigation measures. Here, we examine the projected climate change impacts on drought characteristics across Africa’s Great Green Wall (AGGW) domain using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) derived from the ISIMIP3b dataset. Climate variables, including precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, were analyzed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using five bias-corrected and downscaled global climate models to calculate potential evapotranspiration and SPEI. Drought attributes (drought area, events, severity, duration, frequency, and intensity) were evaluated by comparing with the baseline period (1981–2014), i.e., projections were made for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results showed droughted area in AGGW region would increase by 7.42%, 19.92%, and 28.94% at the end of the century (1972–2100) under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, with moderate droughted areas expanding more rapidly than severe or extreme events. Drought duration, frequency, and intensity are expected to rise throughout the twenty-first century, with larger changes under higher SSPs. Spatially, northern Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan are likely to experience the greatest increases in drought risk, while central and southern Ethiopia and southern Nigeria and Niger show smaller changes. Overall, the findings highlight that climate change will significantly intensify drought conditions in the AGGW region, threatening ecosystems, agriculture, and livelihoods, underscoring the need for strengthened adaptation and mitigation measures, including enhancing the Great Green Wall initiative.</p>

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Intensification of drought characteristics in Africa’s Great Green Wall countries under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月12日

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  • Kidane Welde Reda,
  • Yongdong Wang,
  • Yuan You,
  • Hintsa Libsekal Gebremariam,
  • Gebru Eyasu

摘要

Knowledge of future spatiotemporal drought characteristics is important for planning, designing, and implementing efficient as well as tailored drought adaptation and mitigation measures. Here, we examine the projected climate change impacts on drought characteristics across Africa’s Great Green Wall (AGGW) domain using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) derived from the ISIMIP3b dataset. Climate variables, including precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, were analyzed under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using five bias-corrected and downscaled global climate models to calculate potential evapotranspiration and SPEI. Drought attributes (drought area, events, severity, duration, frequency, and intensity) were evaluated by comparing with the baseline period (1981–2014), i.e., projections were made for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results showed droughted area in AGGW region would increase by 7.42%, 19.92%, and 28.94% at the end of the century (1972–2100) under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, with moderate droughted areas expanding more rapidly than severe or extreme events. Drought duration, frequency, and intensity are expected to rise throughout the twenty-first century, with larger changes under higher SSPs. Spatially, northern Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan are likely to experience the greatest increases in drought risk, while central and southern Ethiopia and southern Nigeria and Niger show smaller changes. Overall, the findings highlight that climate change will significantly intensify drought conditions in the AGGW region, threatening ecosystems, agriculture, and livelihoods, underscoring the need for strengthened adaptation and mitigation measures, including enhancing the Great Green Wall initiative.