A new compendium of models for assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agricultural systems
摘要
The repercussions of climate change on global cropping systems are a matter of considerable debate. This is fuelled by uncertainty in climate–crop yield interactions, as well as an inadequate understanding of the economic measurement methods used to value the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. Global trends of rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and the persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases are becoming increasingly pronounced. Most critical literature reviews have focused on the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, highlighting classical approaches, remote sensing, and machine learning models. However, limited reviews of the models and sub-models assess the economic effects of climate change on agricultural systems. This critical literature review identifies three main types of models: cross-sectional models based on farmland values, rents and farm revenues; panel models based on agricultural profitability; and market equilibrium models based on price. This study considers the sub-models under these three broad categories: cross-sectional, panel, and market equilibrium. Our observations indicate that the most frequently used model is the Ricardian model, a cross-sectional model. While the initial Ricardian model focused on the interactions between farmland values and climatic variables, the analysis has expanded to include non-climatic variables. These models have enhanced the quantification of the economic impacts of climate change on agricultural systems by attributing monetary value based on aspects such as farmland values, profits, and prices to such effects. Additionally, these models have facilitated the integration of socio-economic variables into the modelling process. Ultimately, these findings indicate that model selection often depends on the purpose of the study, the type of data available, the scale at which the study is conducted, and time.