<p>In Senegal, rising temperatures are projected to reduce maize yields due to a shortened growth duration, while elevated CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization may increase peanut yields under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on climate change impacts if crop cultivars change and systems intensify, which is expected to occur in parallel with climate change. For climate-adapted agriculture, the performance of improved agronomy and varieties should be evaluated under current and future climate scenarios. This study assesses the impact of climate change on crop yields of two varieties of peanut and maize at each under current and intensified fertilization. Simulations were performed for mid-century (2045–2074) and end-century (2070–2099) relative to a baseline (1981–2010) using the SIMPLACE modeling framework at 0.5° resolution. Climate projections from nine global climate models (GCMs) were used under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Soil data was derived from the Harmonized World Soil Database. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on crop yields differed by crop. Peanut showed an increase in yield of up to 45% and a decrease for maize of up to 25% by the end of the century. Peanut yield gains were higher under the intensification fertilization case compared to the current fertilization case, whereas for maize, losses were high in the intensification case. Furthermore, yield losses are more substantial in the southern and western parts of the country for both crops. Additionally, for maize, yield losses were higher for the short cycle variety than the long cycle variety; there was little difference between varieties for peanut.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Adaptation potential of alternate varieties and fertilization strategies for peanut and maize in Senegal under climate change

  • Babacar Faye,
  • Mamadou Lamine Mbaye,
  • Heidi Webber,
  • Bounama Dieye,
  • Diégane Diouf,
  • Amadou Thierno Gaye

摘要

In Senegal, rising temperatures are projected to reduce maize yields due to a shortened growth duration, while elevated CO2 fertilization may increase peanut yields under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on climate change impacts if crop cultivars change and systems intensify, which is expected to occur in parallel with climate change. For climate-adapted agriculture, the performance of improved agronomy and varieties should be evaluated under current and future climate scenarios. This study assesses the impact of climate change on crop yields of two varieties of peanut and maize at each under current and intensified fertilization. Simulations were performed for mid-century (2045–2074) and end-century (2070–2099) relative to a baseline (1981–2010) using the SIMPLACE modeling framework at 0.5° resolution. Climate projections from nine global climate models (GCMs) were used under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Soil data was derived from the Harmonized World Soil Database. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on crop yields differed by crop. Peanut showed an increase in yield of up to 45% and a decrease for maize of up to 25% by the end of the century. Peanut yield gains were higher under the intensification fertilization case compared to the current fertilization case, whereas for maize, losses were high in the intensification case. Furthermore, yield losses are more substantial in the southern and western parts of the country for both crops. Additionally, for maize, yield losses were higher for the short cycle variety than the long cycle variety; there was little difference between varieties for peanut.