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<p>Extreme hydrological droughts are expected to intensify under climate change, posing serious challenges to water security and ecosystem sustainability. The study introduces an integrated drought assessment framework to project future extreme drought characteristics under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Hanjiang River Basin, a climate-sensitive watershed in South China. The framework combines statistical downscaling of CMIP6 climate projections, SWAT-based hydrological simulation, the standardized runoff index (SRI), and run theory-based drought frequency analysis. Twelve GCMs were employed under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to generate future climate data using the delta change method. SWAT streamflow simulations were used to calculate the SRI at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales, enabling assessment of drought frequency, average duration, and maximum severity. Results reveal a projected increase in the frequency, average duration, and maximum severity of extreme hydrological droughts across most of the basin, with the central region projected to experience the most pronounced increases. Under SSP1-2.6, the largest increase in extreme drought occurrence is expected under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for the period 2031–2060 on a 3-month time scale, with a maximum rise of 100%. Similarly, the longest average extreme drought duration is expected under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for the period 2061–2090 on a 12-month time scale, with an increase of 66.67%. The largest rise in maximum drought severity occurs under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the period 2061–2090 on a 3-month time scale, reaching 91.74%. These findings underscore the urgency for water resource authorities to implement drought management strategies to adapt to climate change.</p>

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A multimodel assessment of climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought under CMIP6-SSP scenarios in the Hanjiang River Basin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月30日

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  • Haoran Zhu,
  • Xinxin Wu,
  • Chao Dai,
  • Xiaolei Zhang,
  • Guanhui Cheng

摘要

Extreme hydrological droughts are expected to intensify under climate change, posing serious challenges to water security and ecosystem sustainability. The study introduces an integrated drought assessment framework to project future extreme drought characteristics under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Hanjiang River Basin, a climate-sensitive watershed in South China. The framework combines statistical downscaling of CMIP6 climate projections, SWAT-based hydrological simulation, the standardized runoff index (SRI), and run theory-based drought frequency analysis. Twelve GCMs were employed under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to generate future climate data using the delta change method. SWAT streamflow simulations were used to calculate the SRI at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales, enabling assessment of drought frequency, average duration, and maximum severity. Results reveal a projected increase in the frequency, average duration, and maximum severity of extreme hydrological droughts across most of the basin, with the central region projected to experience the most pronounced increases. Under SSP1-2.6, the largest increase in extreme drought occurrence is expected under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for the period 2031–2060 on a 3-month time scale, with a maximum rise of 100%. Similarly, the longest average extreme drought duration is expected under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for the period 2061–2090 on a 12-month time scale, with an increase of 66.67%. The largest rise in maximum drought severity occurs under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the period 2061–2090 on a 3-month time scale, reaching 91.74%. These findings underscore the urgency for water resource authorities to implement drought management strategies to adapt to climate change.