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<p>Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is projected to rise from 2.1 billion tons in 2020 to 3.782 billion tons annually by 2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, intensifying environmental, economic, and social pressures. Using a scenario-based comparative indicator framework built from structured synthesis of global datasets and peer-reviewed literature, this study evaluates current waste management practices and compares three scenarios to 2050: BAU, controlled waste management, and circular economy. We show that 38% of global MSW was disposed of in an uncontrolled manner in 2020, and that without policy intervention, rising waste volumes could drive total waste management costs to US$640.3 billion by 2050 when environmental and social externalities are included. Controlled waste management reduces these burdens but remains insufficient to restore ecosystem quality or achieve long-term sustainability. By contrast, the circular-economy scenario combines waste prevention, collection improvement, and higher material recovery, including a target of 60% municipal recycling by 2050, and is associated with the most favorable environmental and economic outcomes, including a projected net annual gain of US$108.5 billion. However, achieving this pathway will require major infrastructure expansion, policy enforcement, and the removal of persistent technical, financial, and social barriers. These findings show that without rapid policy action and large-scale adoption of sustainable waste systems, eliminating waste-related environmental threats before 2050 will be difficult, putting progress toward global sustainability goals at risk.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Circular solutions to the global waste crisis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月11日

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  • Hamad Hussain Shah,
  • Giuseppe Piso,
  • Erasmo Mancusi,
  • Piero Bareschino,
  • Francesco Pepe

摘要

Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is projected to rise from 2.1 billion tons in 2020 to 3.782 billion tons annually by 2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, intensifying environmental, economic, and social pressures. Using a scenario-based comparative indicator framework built from structured synthesis of global datasets and peer-reviewed literature, this study evaluates current waste management practices and compares three scenarios to 2050: BAU, controlled waste management, and circular economy. We show that 38% of global MSW was disposed of in an uncontrolled manner in 2020, and that without policy intervention, rising waste volumes could drive total waste management costs to US$640.3 billion by 2050 when environmental and social externalities are included. Controlled waste management reduces these burdens but remains insufficient to restore ecosystem quality or achieve long-term sustainability. By contrast, the circular-economy scenario combines waste prevention, collection improvement, and higher material recovery, including a target of 60% municipal recycling by 2050, and is associated with the most favorable environmental and economic outcomes, including a projected net annual gain of US$108.5 billion. However, achieving this pathway will require major infrastructure expansion, policy enforcement, and the removal of persistent technical, financial, and social barriers. These findings show that without rapid policy action and large-scale adoption of sustainable waste systems, eliminating waste-related environmental threats before 2050 will be difficult, putting progress toward global sustainability goals at risk.

Graphical Abstract