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<p>Under the constraints of the “dual-carbon” goals, the low-carbon transition of heavy-polluting manufacturing industries suffers from a lack of endogenous drive and path dependency, largely attributed to the “double externality” problem. Departing from the conventional research paradigm that narrowly focuses on either environmental regulations or technological innovation, this paper develops an integrated analytical framework characterized by “external regulation-driven, internal willingness-led, innovative behavior implementation, and comprehensive benefit feedback.” By coupling four core subsystems, we construct a system dynamics (SD) model to examine the low-carbon transition. Utilizing panel data from nine major heavy-polluting industries (2011–2019) and Vensim-based simulations, we identify three distinct transition pathways: policy-oriented, willingness-oriented, and behavior-oriented. Furthermore, cluster analysis is employed to propose a “categorized governance” scheme that accommodates the heterogeneous features of these industries.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Paths for low-carbon transformation in heavily polluting manufacturing industries under heterogeneous environmental regulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月6日

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  • Jing Gao,
  • Qiuhong Feng,
  • Yang Gao,
  • Tao Guan

摘要

Under the constraints of the “dual-carbon” goals, the low-carbon transition of heavy-polluting manufacturing industries suffers from a lack of endogenous drive and path dependency, largely attributed to the “double externality” problem. Departing from the conventional research paradigm that narrowly focuses on either environmental regulations or technological innovation, this paper develops an integrated analytical framework characterized by “external regulation-driven, internal willingness-led, innovative behavior implementation, and comprehensive benefit feedback.” By coupling four core subsystems, we construct a system dynamics (SD) model to examine the low-carbon transition. Utilizing panel data from nine major heavy-polluting industries (2011–2019) and Vensim-based simulations, we identify three distinct transition pathways: policy-oriented, willingness-oriented, and behavior-oriented. Furthermore, cluster analysis is employed to propose a “categorized governance” scheme that accommodates the heterogeneous features of these industries.

Graphical abstract