Abstract <p>With global warming, the continuous increase in carbon emissions has undoubtedly become a difficult problem for mankind. It is very important to study the regional carbon balance to promote the benign development of socio-economic and natural ecosystems and achieve the “dual carbon” goal. Taking the Yangtze River Delta region as an example, this paper collects LUCC remote sensing images from 2010 to 2020 to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use, and calculates regional carbon emissions according to the carbon emission coefficient method. The results show that the study area is in a state of “carbon imbalance”, and carbon emissions are increasing year by year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The geoprobe model can be used to detect the spatial variability of geographical factors and reveal the driving forces behind them. The study applies the geoprobe model to further clarify the effects and interactions of the factors influencing carbon emissions, and the results show that there are significant results in the detection of factors such as population density, total population, per capita GDP, total energy consumption, and the proportion of secondary industry. Based on the low carbon development of each province and city in the YRD region, valuable policy recommendations are proposed in terms of optimizing the urban land use structure, adjusting the population structure, upgrading the industrial structure and reforming the energy consumption structure. The study helps to understand the overall situation of carbon emissions in the YRD region, which can provide a scientific basis for policy formulation, promote the sustainable development of cities and the construction of ecological civilisation, and provide a basis for the national carbon emission reduction policy, so as to promote the achievement of the national “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>