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Objectives <p>This study investigates the global burden of common central nervous system (CNS) disorders—including late-onset multiple sclerosis (LOMS), Parkinson’s disease (PD), Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADOD)—among adults aged 55 years and older, covering the period from 1990 to 2021 with projections extending through 2050.</p> Methods <p>Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, spanning the years 1990 to 2021, were analyzed to evaluate the number of incident and prevalent cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and their corresponding age-standardized rates. These metrics were stratified by socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, sex, and age groups. Future trends were forecasted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model up to the year 2036 and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model up to 2050.</p> Results <p>In 2021, global cases reached 0.76&#xa0;million for LOMS, 10.76&#xa0;million for PD, and 20.84&#xa0;million for ADOD. ADOD exhibited the highest burden across all metrics. Females bore greater LOMS and ADOD burden; males bore higher PD burden. High SDI regions had highest LOMS burden; high-middle SDI regions led in PD and ADOD burden. Population growth was the primary burden driver. China faced the highest PD and ADOD burden due to rapid aging.</p> Conclusion <p>Urgent health policies must target elderly populations with sex-specific approaches—focusing on women for LOMS/ADOD and men for PD—alongside strategies for high-risk demographic groups.</p>

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The burden and trends of late-onset multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias among adults aged 55 and older, spanning from 1990 to 2021, with projections through 2050

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Xiaojun Liu,
  • Xiujuan Mi,
  • Xinyuan Yu,
  • Ning Deng,
  • Yuanhong Lei,
  • Jianzhong Shu,
  • Jun Tang

摘要

Objectives

This study investigates the global burden of common central nervous system (CNS) disorders—including late-onset multiple sclerosis (LOMS), Parkinson’s disease (PD), Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADOD)—among adults aged 55 years and older, covering the period from 1990 to 2021 with projections extending through 2050.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, spanning the years 1990 to 2021, were analyzed to evaluate the number of incident and prevalent cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and their corresponding age-standardized rates. These metrics were stratified by socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, sex, and age groups. Future trends were forecasted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model up to the year 2036 and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model up to 2050.

Results

In 2021, global cases reached 0.76 million for LOMS, 10.76 million for PD, and 20.84 million for ADOD. ADOD exhibited the highest burden across all metrics. Females bore greater LOMS and ADOD burden; males bore higher PD burden. High SDI regions had highest LOMS burden; high-middle SDI regions led in PD and ADOD burden. Population growth was the primary burden driver. China faced the highest PD and ADOD burden due to rapid aging.

Conclusion

Urgent health policies must target elderly populations with sex-specific approaches—focusing on women for LOMS/ADOD and men for PD—alongside strategies for high-risk demographic groups.