Objectives Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) imposes a substantial global health burden, contributing significantly to chronic disability and escalating healthcare costs. Accurate, long-term prevalence forecasts are essential to inform strategic planning for rheumatology services and health resource allocation. Methods Hence, we developed and calibrated a sex-specific illness-death model (IDM) at global, regional, and national scales using GBD data (1990–2021). To uncover underlying epidemiological patterns, we augmented our projections with a frontier analysis that evaluates the efficiency of RA burden relative to sociodemographic index (SDI). Results We project the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) will rise by 6.3% to 222.06 per 100,000 (95% CI, 220.49–223.6) by 2040. While females bear a higher absolute prevalence, the growth rate is projected to be faster in males (8.75% vs. 5.67%). Significant disparities exist at regional and national levels: Andean Latin America and Peru are anticipated to have the highest ASPRs, while Oceania and Indonesia are projected to have the lowest. An increasing trend is projected globally, across 18 GBD regions, and in 167 nations. Critically, frontier analysis reveals that higher sociodemographic development frequently coincides with a larger “RA efficiency gap,” indicating economic progress alone is insufficient for disease control. Conclusion Therefore, mitigating the projected rise in RA requires strategies that move beyond relying on general economic advancement. Future health policies must actively integrate targeted prevention of modifiable lifestyle risks and bridge healthcare access gaps to effectively curb the coming global burden. <Table Float="No" ID="Taba"> <tgroup cols="2"> <colspec colname="c1" colnum="1" /> <colspec colname="c2" colnum="2" /> <tbody> <row> <entry align="left" nameend="c2" namest="c1"> Key Points • Projects a 6.3% global increase in RA prevalence by 2040, with faster growth in males. • Identifies an “RA efficiency gap” where higher development correlates with higher burden. • Forecasts severe geographic disparities, with Andean Latin America having the highest burden. • Concludes that targeted prevention, not just economic progress, is needed to curb future burden. </entry> </row> </tbody> </tgroup> </Table>

Assessing rheumatoid arthritis prevalence from 1990 to 2040: viewing global inequities through the lens of sociodemographic development

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年5月11日

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Amir Khanmirzaei,
Meysam Olfatifar,
Gelareh Azarinoush,
Mohammadreza Azizkhani,
Kimia Jazi,
Mohammad Aghaali,
Maryam Masoumi

摘要

Objectives

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) imposes a substantial global health burden, contributing significantly to chronic disability and escalating healthcare costs. Accurate, long-term prevalence forecasts are essential to inform strategic planning for rheumatology services and health resource allocation.

Methods

Hence, we developed and calibrated a sex-specific illness-death model (IDM) at global, regional, and national scales using GBD data (1990–2021). To uncover underlying epidemiological patterns, we augmented our projections with a frontier analysis that evaluates the efficiency of RA burden relative to sociodemographic index (SDI).

Results

We project the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) will rise by 6.3% to 222.06 per 100,000 (95% CI, 220.49–223.6) by 2040. While females bear a higher absolute prevalence, the growth rate is projected to be faster in males (8.75% vs. 5.67%). Significant disparities exist at regional and national levels: Andean Latin America and Peru are anticipated to have the highest ASPRs, while Oceania and Indonesia are projected to have the lowest. An increasing trend is projected globally, across 18 GBD regions, and in 167 nations. Critically, frontier analysis reveals that higher sociodemographic development frequently coincides with a larger “RA efficiency gap,” indicating economic progress alone is insufficient for disease control.

Conclusion

Therefore, mitigating the projected rise in RA requires strategies that move beyond relying on general economic advancement. Future health policies must actively integrate targeted prevention of modifiable lifestyle risks and bridge healthcare access gaps to effectively curb the coming global burden.

Key Points

• Projects a 6.3% global increase in RA prevalence by 2040, with faster growth in males.

• Identifies an “RA efficiency gap” where higher development correlates with higher burden.

• Forecasts severe geographic disparities, with Andean Latin America having the highest burden.

• Concludes that targeted prevention, not just economic progress, is needed to curb future burden.