Objective This study assessed the predictive value of TURPAID and PREDICT-crFMF scores at diagnosis for FMF50 response at the sixth month in children with Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) and examined their associations with disease-activity indices and acute-phase reactants. Methods Children newly diagnosed with FMF according to the Eurofever/PRINTO criteria and who received colchicine treatment for at least 6 months were included. Clinical and laboratory data were retrospectively obtained from electronic medical records. Treatment response was evaluated at the 6-month follow-up visit. Results Overall, 168 children with FMF (50.6% female) were included. FMF50 response at 6 months was achieved in 64.8% of patients. PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores were significantly higher in non-responders than in responders (p < 0.001 for both). Higher PREDICT-crFMF (aOR 1.240, 95% CI 1.113–1.382, p < 0.001) and TURPAID (aOR 2.009, 95% CI 1.384–2.916, p < 0.001) scores, and M694V homozygosity (aOR 3.390, 95% CI 1.700–6.760, p < 0.001) independently predicted FMF50 nonresponse. Both scores showed significant discrimination (AUC = 0.685 for PREDICT-crFMF; 0.670 for TURPAID; p < 0.001). Optimal cut-offs were ≥ 3 for PREDICT-crFMF (sensitivity 67.8%, specificity 69.7%) and > 1.5 for TURPAID (sensitivity 76.3%, specificity 54.1%). PREDICT-crFMF scores correlated with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), serum amyloid A, and disease activity indices, but not Mor score; TURPAID scores correlated with ESR and all evaluated disease activity indices. Conclusion Early assessment of PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores at diagnosis may help identify FMF patients at risk for colchicine resistance. <Table Float="No" ID="Taba"> <tgroup cols="2"> <colspec align="left" colname="c1" colnum="1" /> <colspec align="left" colname="c2" colnum="2" /> <tbody> <row> <entry align="left" nameend="c2" namest="c1"> Key Points • This is the first study to evaluate PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores together using FMF50 as the treatment-response outcome in children with FMF. • Higher PREDICT-crFMF and higher TURPAID scores at diagnosis independently predicted failure to achieve FMF50 response at 6 months. • The significant associations of these scores with disease activity indices and inflammatory markers support their value in reflecting early inflammatory burden. </entry> </row> </tbody> </tgroup> </Table>

From diagnosis to treatment response: predicting FMF50 response using PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores in children with Familial Mediterranean Fever: a retrospective cohort study

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年5月7日

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Eda Nur Dizman,
Feray Kaya,
Elif Kucuk,
Lutfiye Koru,
Zelal Aydin,
Hatice Kubra Dursun,
Merve Ozen Balci,
Ufuk Furkan Ozdemir,
Serpil Meric Toprak,
Aynur Alizada,
Kubra Ozturk,
Fatih Haslak

摘要

Objective

This study assessed the predictive value of TURPAID and PREDICT-crFMF scores at diagnosis for FMF50 response at the sixth month in children with Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) and examined their associations with disease-activity indices and acute-phase reactants.

Methods

Children newly diagnosed with FMF according to the Eurofever/PRINTO criteria and who received colchicine treatment for at least 6 months were included. Clinical and laboratory data were retrospectively obtained from electronic medical records. Treatment response was evaluated at the 6-month follow-up visit.

Results

Overall, 168 children with FMF (50.6% female) were included. FMF50 response at 6 months was achieved in 64.8% of patients. PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores were significantly higher in non-responders than in responders (p < 0.001 for both). Higher PREDICT-crFMF (aOR 1.240, 95% CI 1.113–1.382, p < 0.001) and TURPAID (aOR 2.009, 95% CI 1.384–2.916, p < 0.001) scores, and M694V homozygosity (aOR 3.390, 95% CI 1.700–6.760, p < 0.001) independently predicted FMF50 nonresponse. Both scores showed significant discrimination (AUC = 0.685 for PREDICT-crFMF; 0.670 for TURPAID; p < 0.001). Optimal cut-offs were ≥ 3 for PREDICT-crFMF (sensitivity 67.8%, specificity 69.7%) and > 1.5 for TURPAID (sensitivity 76.3%, specificity 54.1%). PREDICT-crFMF scores correlated with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), serum amyloid A, and disease activity indices, but not Mor score; TURPAID scores correlated with ESR and all evaluated disease activity indices.

Conclusion

Early assessment of PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores at diagnosis may help identify FMF patients at risk for colchicine resistance.

Key Points

• This is the first study to evaluate PREDICT-crFMF and TURPAID scores together using FMF50 as the treatment-response outcome in children with FMF.

• Higher PREDICT-crFMF and higher TURPAID scores at diagnosis independently predicted failure to achieve FMF50 response at 6 months.

• The significant associations of these scores with disease activity indices and inflammatory markers support their value in reflecting early inflammatory burden.