Background Against the backdrop of population aging (over 29% of Japan’s population aged 65 and above) and urbanization (regional urbanization rate rising from 38.5 to 67.3%) in East Asia, the socioeconomic driving mechanism of the disease burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) remains unclear. Objective A systematic analysis was conducted to examine the evolving trends in the disease burden of hip and knee OA in East Asia (including China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, and North Korea) from 1990 to 2023, as well as its associations with socioeconomic factors, to provide a basis for public health policies. Methods Based on the 2023 edition of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, relevant data of hip and knee OA in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023 (170 country-year observations in total) were extracted. Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, and ARIMA prediction model were used to analyze the association between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and disease burden indicators (DALYs rate, prevalence rate, incidence rate). Results The disease burden in high-SDI countries was significantly higher than that in low-SDI countries (Japan’s DALYs rate, 59.32 per 100,000 population; Mongolia’s DALYs rate, 22.45 per 100,000 population, P < 0.001). There was a strong positive correlation between SDI and DALYs rate (r = 0.726; 95% CI, 0.631–0.805). Females (DALYs rate, 45.23 per 100,000 population in 2023) and the 40–49 age group were high-risk populations. Conclusion The disease burden of hip and knee OA in East Asia is significantly correlated with the level of socioeconomic development. It is essential to formulate differentiated prevention and control strategies for countries with different SDI levels to reduce the population’s disease burden. <Table Float="No" ID="Taba"> <tgroup cols="2"> <colspec align="justify" colname="c1" colnum="1" /> <colspec align="justify" colname="c2" colnum="2" /> <tbody> <row> <entry nameend="c2" namest="c1"> Key Points • First systematic analysis of hip and knee osteoarthritis disease burden in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023, revealing a strong positive correlation with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) • Identified females and the 40–49 age group as high-risk, with disease burden growth significantly faster in low-SDI countries than high-SDI ones • Proposed differentiated prevention strategies: elderly rehabilitation in high-SDI, addressing urban-rural disparities in mid-SDI, and enhancing diagnostic capacity in low-SDI countries • Provided data support for public health policy and medical resource allocation for osteoarthritis in East Asia </entry> </row> </tbody> </tgroup> </Table>

Spatiotemporal trends and socioeconomic drivers of hip-knee osteoarthritis burden in East Asia: a GBD-based modeling study (1990–2023)

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年3月12日

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Zhen-Yuan Chen,
Qian Guo,
Chu-Shan Huang

摘要

Background

Against the backdrop of population aging (over 29% of Japan’s population aged 65 and above) and urbanization (regional urbanization rate rising from 38.5 to 67.3%) in East Asia, the socioeconomic driving mechanism of the disease burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) remains unclear.

Objective

A systematic analysis was conducted to examine the evolving trends in the disease burden of hip and knee OA in East Asia (including China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, and North Korea) from 1990 to 2023, as well as its associations with socioeconomic factors, to provide a basis for public health policies.

Methods

Based on the 2023 edition of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, relevant data of hip and knee OA in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023 (170 country-year observations in total) were extracted. Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, and ARIMA prediction model were used to analyze the association between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and disease burden indicators (DALYs rate, prevalence rate, incidence rate).

Results

The disease burden in high-SDI countries was significantly higher than that in low-SDI countries (Japan’s DALYs rate, 59.32 per 100,000 population; Mongolia’s DALYs rate, 22.45 per 100,000 population, P < 0.001). There was a strong positive correlation between SDI and DALYs rate (r = 0.726; 95% CI, 0.631–0.805). Females (DALYs rate, 45.23 per 100,000 population in 2023) and the 40–49 age group were high-risk populations.

Conclusion

The disease burden of hip and knee OA in East Asia is significantly correlated with the level of socioeconomic development. It is essential to formulate differentiated prevention and control strategies for countries with different SDI levels to reduce the population’s disease burden.

Key Points

• First systematic analysis of hip and knee osteoarthritis disease burden in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023, revealing a strong positive correlation with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI)

• Identified females and the 40–49 age group as high-risk, with disease burden growth significantly faster in low-SDI countries than high-SDI ones

• Proposed differentiated prevention strategies: elderly rehabilitation in high-SDI, addressing urban-rural disparities in mid-SDI, and enhancing diagnostic capacity in low-SDI countries

• Provided data support for public health policy and medical resource allocation for osteoarthritis in East Asia