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<p>Rainfall-induced shallow landslides frequently occur in southern China with heightened intensity during annual flood seasons, posing severe threats to life and property. Conducting slope stability analyses using field-acquired geotechnical parameters is therefore critically important for hazard mitigation. The TRIGRS model is particularly effective in simulating the impact of rainfall on the stability of slopes. However, its application in southern China is relatively limited, and it is mostly used in areas with smaller landslides. This study applied TRIGRS to simulate the 20 April 2024 cluster landslide event (2,393 shallow landslides) in Jiangwan Town. Utilizing field-derived parameters and actual rainfall data, we simulated stability distributions during two heavy rainfall episodes across three soil moisture states: dry conditions (pre-rainfall), wet unsaturated state (post 4–7 April rainfall), and saturated state (post 20 April rainfall). Results indicate only 4.8% of slopes were unstable (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:{\text{F}}_{\text{S}}&lt;1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) under dry conditions, increasing to 7.5% after initial rainfall while maintaining regional stability. Following saturation-inducing rainfall, unstable areas expanded to 25.9%, accounting for 53.2% of observed landslides. Model validation via ROC analysis yielded an AUC of 0.80, demonstrating moderate-to-good predictive capability. Notably, 16.4% of landslides occurred within 42.7% of simulated “stable” zones (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:{\text{F}}_{\text{S}}&gt;1.5\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), all located on gentle slopes (&lt; 15°), revealing limitations in low-gradient terrain prediction. These findings provide important localized case support and an accuracy reference for the application of this model in similar geological and climatic regions of South China.</p>

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Dynamic simulation of slope stability based on TRIGRS model: a case study of cluster landslides in Jiangwan Town, Shaoguan, Guangdong, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Xinpeng Zheng,
  • Qiang Xu,
  • Wanlin Chen,
  • Haoxing Zhao,
  • Ke Yang,
  • Ling Song,
  • Ping Yang

摘要

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides frequently occur in southern China with heightened intensity during annual flood seasons, posing severe threats to life and property. Conducting slope stability analyses using field-acquired geotechnical parameters is therefore critically important for hazard mitigation. The TRIGRS model is particularly effective in simulating the impact of rainfall on the stability of slopes. However, its application in southern China is relatively limited, and it is mostly used in areas with smaller landslides. This study applied TRIGRS to simulate the 20 April 2024 cluster landslide event (2,393 shallow landslides) in Jiangwan Town. Utilizing field-derived parameters and actual rainfall data, we simulated stability distributions during two heavy rainfall episodes across three soil moisture states: dry conditions (pre-rainfall), wet unsaturated state (post 4–7 April rainfall), and saturated state (post 20 April rainfall). Results indicate only 4.8% of slopes were unstable ( \(\:{\text{F}}_{\text{S}}<1\) ) under dry conditions, increasing to 7.5% after initial rainfall while maintaining regional stability. Following saturation-inducing rainfall, unstable areas expanded to 25.9%, accounting for 53.2% of observed landslides. Model validation via ROC analysis yielded an AUC of 0.80, demonstrating moderate-to-good predictive capability. Notably, 16.4% of landslides occurred within 42.7% of simulated “stable” zones ( \(\:{\text{F}}_{\text{S}}>1.5\) ), all located on gentle slopes (< 15°), revealing limitations in low-gradient terrain prediction. These findings provide important localized case support and an accuracy reference for the application of this model in similar geological and climatic regions of South China.