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<p>Stability of critical slopes along the reservoir areas is crucial for dam safety and infrastructure, primarily driven by rainfall and fluctuations in reservoir water levels (WL). This study uses the Finite Element Method (FEM) to assess the deformation and stability of a critical slope adjacent to the Dasu Reservoir under various scenarios. Through detail field, Remote Sensing, and laboratory tests, the geomechanical and environmental conditions were investigated. Comprehensive simulations were conducted to evaluate the individual and coupled impacts of fluctuating reservoir WL, variable rainfall intensities, and dynamic loading. Results indicate that the FoS remains relatively constant under steady state and lowered Water table (WT) conditions but decreases by 3.2% when the WT rises by 4&#xa0;m. Slope stability is highly affected by rainfall intensity due to increased pore water pressure and reduced soil shear strength; under maximum rainfall intensity of 35.2&#xa0;mm/hr FoS dropped from 1.177 to 1.170 within 12&#xa0;h. The results of dynamic load analysis using the Kobe earthquake simulation clearly depict a FoS that ranges from 0.916 to 1.436, showing very high instability. The coupled effect of dynamic loads and varying WT levels results in maximum slope instability, with an FoS of 0.653. As the reservoir impoundment is expected to reach 160–180&#xa0;m, practical monitoring and reinforcement measures are essential to prevent further destabilization. This study offers valuable insights into slope stability under complex environmental conditions, contributing to enhanced dam safety and effective risk mitigation.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Numerical Simulation and Stability Forecasting of a Critical Slope Considering Future Reservoir Impoundment under Coupled Hydrological and Seismic Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Hilal Ahmad,
  • Zhang Yinghua,
  • Mehtab Alam,
  • Majid Khan,
  • Sajid Hameed,
  • Aboubakar Siddique

摘要

Stability of critical slopes along the reservoir areas is crucial for dam safety and infrastructure, primarily driven by rainfall and fluctuations in reservoir water levels (WL). This study uses the Finite Element Method (FEM) to assess the deformation and stability of a critical slope adjacent to the Dasu Reservoir under various scenarios. Through detail field, Remote Sensing, and laboratory tests, the geomechanical and environmental conditions were investigated. Comprehensive simulations were conducted to evaluate the individual and coupled impacts of fluctuating reservoir WL, variable rainfall intensities, and dynamic loading. Results indicate that the FoS remains relatively constant under steady state and lowered Water table (WT) conditions but decreases by 3.2% when the WT rises by 4 m. Slope stability is highly affected by rainfall intensity due to increased pore water pressure and reduced soil shear strength; under maximum rainfall intensity of 35.2 mm/hr FoS dropped from 1.177 to 1.170 within 12 h. The results of dynamic load analysis using the Kobe earthquake simulation clearly depict a FoS that ranges from 0.916 to 1.436, showing very high instability. The coupled effect of dynamic loads and varying WT levels results in maximum slope instability, with an FoS of 0.653. As the reservoir impoundment is expected to reach 160–180 m, practical monitoring and reinforcement measures are essential to prevent further destabilization. This study offers valuable insights into slope stability under complex environmental conditions, contributing to enhanced dam safety and effective risk mitigation.

Graphical Abstract